China Announces Manned Lunar Mission In 2017 Options

[Stephen]

2017 is a very optomistic target. The Chinese government has not yet given official approval for the development of the 25 tonne to orbit launcher that the Chinese lunar space programme would require. When the go ahead is given it will 6½ years in development.

China has not yet sent a space probe beyond earth orbit. Official approval has not yet been given to an un-manned lunar orbiter.

2017 is still more than a decade away. How many space probes had the US sent beyond Earth orbit in 1959?

Come to that where were America's plans for a manned lunar landing in 1959?

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Stephen

[Bob Shaw]

Bruce is right - half the WWW sites which have picked up on this go one way, while half go the other! I side with the 'second phase' interpretation put forward by Comrade Moomaw!

Bob Shaw

[ljk4-1]

2017 is still more than a decade away. How many space probes had the US sent beyond Earth orbit in 1959?

Come to that where were America's plans for a manned lunar landing in 1959?

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Stephen

It was called Project Horizon:

http://www.astronautix.com/articles/propter1.htm

[Phil Stooke]

"2017 is still more than a decade away. How many space probes had the US sent beyond Earth orbit in 1959?

Come to that where were America's plans for a manned lunar landing in 1959?

======
Stephen"


True... but on the other hand, where's the excess industrial capacity, enormous funding power, and Cold War rivalry?

China shouldn't be put down for moving slowly (as some people have done). They are doing what the US and Russia would have done if the 'moon race' hadn't arisen. But on the other hand they shouldn't be assumed to be likely to follow the pace set in the 60s, which was artificial. THere's no drive to be 'first' at everything like the Soviets, or to catch up like the US.

Also, the U. S. Army proposed Project Horizon, a military base on the Moon, in 1959! The US Air Force lunar base plan, "Lunex" was published in 1961 the day after Kennedy's famous speech, but had been developed earlier, too. So those plans were already well developed.

Phil

[Bill Harris]

From the Project Horizon site:

"Project HORIZON represents the earliest feasible capability for the U. S. to establish a lunar outpost. By its implementation, the United States can establish an operational lunar outpost by late 1966, with the initial manned landings to have taken place in the spring of 1965."

It seemed so easy back then...

On the other hand, science fiction writers have been writing about Moon bases and Mars colonies, etc, since the '30's and '40's, so it isn't too much a stretch of the imagination.

--Bill

[Guest_BruceMoomaw_*]

Arthur C. Clarke once noted that -- while the British Interplanetary Society is fond of bragging about its belief in the 1940s (shared by almost no one at the time) that a manned lunar flight would be possible in this century, it also fondly believed that the cost of such a mission would be "just a few tens of millions of dollars" (in 1940s dollars). "Had we known that it would take billions..."

And I think China IS following a much more relaxed pace than the US and the USSR followed during their frenzied 1960s technological Muscle Beach Contest -- which was, after all, conducted for an audience consisting of all the rest of the world, to try to persuade them that one side or the other had both a better economic system and better missile technology. Unlike the ESA and Japan, China's ruling dictatorship DOES have the additional motive of trying to stir up nationalistic support for itself among the increasingly disgruntled Chinese public -- but it also has a lot more poverty to try to allay than Europe and Japan do, which means that spending a lot of its citizens' money on a flamboyant space program for PR purposes just might blow up in its face.

[remcook]

some more on China's plans from the washington times:

http://washingtontimes.com/op-ed/20060418-091035-3408r.htm

[Guest_BruceMoomaw_*]

Ignoring the editorial's absurd conclusion that "the best way for a country to retain its technological edge" on things that matter is with an expensive manned space program (or, for that matter, an unmanned one): the "In Orbit" column of the April 10 Aviation Week has some more interesting information on China's plans, which I'll type out here later today if no one else can scan it in. Short version: China's government is considering a spending boost on the space program, but of uncertain size -- and China's civilian space agency is griping about the fact that the military tightly controls its manned program and withholds public information on Shenzhou. (I suspect that those "orbital modules" that get left behind for prolonged operations by each manned flight contain a lot of reconnaissance gear.)

[Guest_BruceMoomaw_*]

Here are those two short items in the April 10 Aviation Week on China's space program:

(1) "China still lags 15 years behind the US and Russia in space program developments, but could catch up in 10 years with enough funding from the government. Huang Cunping, who leads manned launcher programs, made the assessment to the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), a major Communist Party planning organization. The fact that his statements were aired publicly by the government-controlled Xinhua news agency may suggest that a spending boost is at least under consideration.

"In Washington, Luo Ge, one of two vice administrators in the China National Space Administration (CNSA), says his country presently spends about $500 million a year on space activities, a figure he admits is difficult to calculate. For that sum, Luo says, China gets about 200,000 full-time space workers, compared with the 75,000 public and contract workers NASA believes it keeps employed.

"Also appearing at the CPPCC and covered by Xinhua was Qi Faren, chief designer of China's first five Shenzhou spacecraft. He called for an overhaul of the way Chinese space programs are planned, saying China needs a unified organization to plan its manned space missions, satellites and lunar exploration as a whole. China's current space program activies are split, with launch vehicle development and planning carried out by the People's Liberation Army, and science satellite development managed by the CNSA. Top CNSA managers have complained that they have little insight into many Shenzhou operations because of the military's tight control of the program."

(2) China is completing assembly of a 132-ft. diameter deep-space network antenna specifically designed to communicsate with the Chang'e lunar orbiter set for launch next year. The antgenna is located atop Mount Phoenix, a 6600-ft. peak near Kunming. It will be used in connection smaller dishes in Shanghai nd northwest China to send and receive data during the Chang'e mission and to communcate with follow-on unmanned Chinese lunar orbiters and landers. The new antenna stands 148 ft. tall and weighs 400 tons.

"China intends to follow the Chang'e mission with an unmanned soft lunar landing by bout 2012 and an unmanned lunar sample return mission in 2017, cccording to CNSA Vice Administratio Luo Ge."

[ljk4-1]

(2) China is completing assembly of a 132-ft. diameter deep-space network antenna specifically designed to communicsate with the Chang'e lunar orbiter set for launch next year. The antgenna is located atop Mount Phoenix, a 6600-ft. peak near Kunming. It will be used in connection smaller dishes in Shanghai nd northwest China to send and receive data during the Chang'e mission and to communcate with follow-on unmanned Chinese lunar orbiters and landers. The new antenna stands 148 ft. tall and weighs 400 tons.

Speaking of large Chinese radio antennae, they also have plans to build a
500-meter dish and eventually 30 dishes the size of Arecibo in the remote
western half of their nation!

The details here:

http://www.skatelescope.org/PDF/Pub_FAST040125.pdf

http://www.skatelescope.org/documents/dcwp/Upd_KARST.PDF

[ljk4-1]

Here are some more details on the radio telescope the Chinese
are going to use for their 2007 Moon probe and their next manned
space mission in 2008, which will include an EVA.


MOON DAILY

- China Completes Radio Telescope For Moon-Probe Project

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/China_Co...be_Project.html

Kunming, China (XNA) Apr 24, 2006 - Chinese scientists in early April completed
the main part of a high-tech radio telescope which will serve China's ambitious
moon-probe project scheduled for launch in 2007. The 45-meter tall telescope
weighs 400 tons and measures 40 meters in diameter of the antenna. It's located
in southwest China's Yunnan Province and is the country's second largest radio
telescope. The largest is being built in Beijing.


DRAGON SPACE

- China Plans Third Manned Space Flight To Fly In September 2008

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/China_Pl...ember_2008.html

Beijing, April 23 (AFP) Apr 23, 2006 - China's third manned space flight will
take place in September 2008 immediately aftter the Beijing Olympic Games, with
astronauts attempting a space walk, state press reported Sunday.

[ljk4-1]

China To Launch Satellites For Lunar Surveying

http://www.moondaily.com/reports/China_To_..._Surveying.html

Beijing (XNA) May 09, 2006 - China will launch high-resolution satellites to
conduct surveying and mapping of the moon in upcoming five years, the People's
Daily reports on Saturday.

[ljk4-1]

China Moon Probe Readied for April 2007 liftoff

http://www.space.com/news/060518_china_moon.html

Space officials in China are eying April of next year for the launch of their
first lunar orbiter—Chang'e-I.

[Stephen]

China Moon Probe Readied for April 2007 liftoff

http://www.space.com/news/060518_china_moon.html

Space officials in China are eying April of next year for the launch of their
first lunar orbiter—Chang'e-I.

I also note what the article has the Chinese implying about their manned moon mission plans: that their first manned mission there will probably be AFTER 2020, rather than BY 2020.

"Following the Chang’e-I orbiter mission, Luan said, is landing an unmanned vehicle on the moon by 2010 and collecting samples of lunar soil with an unmanned vehicle by 2020.

"'Only after we finish the three phases can we carry out the manned satellite project to probe the moon', Luan stated."

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Stephen

[Guest_BruceMoomaw_*]

Yes -- and notice how carefully vague he is about how LONG after the unmanned phase is complete it will be before any manned lunar program begins.