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The Last 10 Days In The Space Shuttle's Bunker?, Atlantis apparently to be scrapped in 2008
Guest_BruceMoomaw_*
post Feb 21 2006, 03:05 AM
Post #1





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http://dsc.discovery.com/news/briefs/20060...lantis_spa.html :

"Under orders to retire the shuttle fleet by 2010, NASA plans to cancel shuttle Atlantis' next scheduled overhaul and mothball the ship in 2008.

"Rather than becoming a museum piece, however, Atlantis will serve as a spare parts donor for sister ships Discovery and Endeavour to complete assembly of the International Space Station.

" 'People are already calling us and asking us can they display one of our orbiters in their museum after we're done. I'm not giving anybody anything until we're all agreed the station is complete and the shuttles' job is done,' shuttle program manager Wayne Hale told Kennedy Space Center employees during a televised address on Friday.

" 'We're going to keep (Atlantis) in as near flight-ready condition as we can without putting it through a (modification and overhaul) so we can use those parts,' Hale said.
____________________

Jeffrey Bell has recently finished a piece for "SpaceDaily" proclaiming that the wholesale cancellation of other NASA projects in the FY 2007 budget to keep Shuttle and ISS going is actually just part of Michael Griffin's Machiavellian strategy to get both of the cancelled, by making it clear that they can be saved now only at the cost of a swarm of other projects (including Bush's lunar program) which are now more popular. Certainly that is the overwhelming message being conveyed, whether Griffin planned it that way or not -- I haven't seen a single newspaper editorial yet that favors retaining Shuttle at this point.

(Bell also claims to see other, subtler evidence of this strategy in Griffin's moves over the last few weeks -- and also signs that he definitely plans to throw ISS from the train as well, by just giving it to the Russians half-finished in a few years and paying off the ESA and Japan for their unlaunched space lab modules. These include the fact that he's cancelled work on the unmanned cargo variant of the Crew Exploration Vehicle that will be necessary to take up replacement Control Moment Gyros to the ISS after the Shuttle is no longer available.)
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Guest_BruceMoomaw_*
post Feb 22 2006, 01:19 AM
Post #2





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While I will agree that it's insane (even given NASA's past actions) to say that Griffin would DELIBERATELY pass up an opportunity to minimize the dangers of more falling Shuttle foam before the next launch, there's another possibility: we may very well have no choice but to do so if we want to keep the ISS going at all.

The best weblog page on the ISS ( http://www.geocities.com/i_s_s_alpha ) says flatly that the only possible carrier right now for the Control Moment Gyros, except for the Shuttle, is Japan's HEV cargo carrier -- which won't be ready until 2009. (Europe's cargo carrier module can't do it.) NASA released a solicitation for "Commercial Orbital Transportation Services" carriers that might be able to do the job in October, with the proposals due this May -- so how long will it be before one of those can possibly fly? Surely 2008 at the absolute earliest.

And the CMGs have proven very fragile. Quoting last Sept. 5's Aviation Week: "The CMGs are too large to fit through the Progress vehicle hatch, so the Shuttle is the only option for replacing them. The combination of their ability to save propellant and their apparent fragility makes CMGs the long pole in the tent for continued Station viability without Shuttle support.

" 'If we went down to one CMG we couldn't last very long, says Mark Ferring, lead ISS flight director during the EVAs [on last year's Shuttle flight]. That's the thing that we had to get done.'

"NASA is already looking for smaller, lighter gyros to use on the Station after it retires the Shuttle. But for now, the only option available to the Station program is getting the most use out of the current model. Controllers were surprised when CMG-1 failed -- the victim of a bearing failure that gave only a few hours' of warning -- and they still don't have a full understanding of the breakdown. As soon as the spacewalkers restored power to CMG-2, ISS controllers took CMG-3 offline for attitude control because it was showing unusual vibrations and current pulls, although they let it continue to spin. Engineers at NASA and L-3 Communications, which supplied the CMGs, were eager to get a look at the original CMG-1 in the hope it would hold clues to the cause of its bearing failure. Noguchi and Robinson carefully bolted it into the aft end of Discovery's payload bay for the trip home.

" 'Bringing one back is actually one of the biggest priority things that we have on this flight, not just installing a new one, but getting the one that's failed on the ground so we can do analysis on it', Ferring says."

So. If they get down to only two working CMGs on the ISS again and they don't have a flying Shuttle before 2008, they are up Excrement Waterway -- they will have no way to prevent the sudden reduction of the ISS at any moment to only one CMG, after which it "can't last very long". For this reason alone, NASA may very well have to fly Shuttles again as soon as possible even if they don't -- or can't -- solve the foam problem. Unless, that is, they're prepared to dump the ISS at any moment.

As for Griffin's Jan. 19 interview with the Orlando Sentinel that Bell mentions ( http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_spac...griffin_af.html ), he makes it pretty clear that --while he hopes they've solved the problem of big pieces of foam falling off -- he is by no means confident of it:

"Orlando Sentinel: What is the likelihood of making May?

"Griffin: We don’t know. I think you’ve been covering this long enough to understand that in order to even find out, you have to set a date and then you have to start working toward that date. We know what our processing flow is. We’re not going to make it up on the fly and the process flow either makes May or it doesn’t. But on the other hand, if we don’t set a date and try for it, we know we won’t make one. So that’s the plan. In brief summary to the question, yes, we think we understand the mechanism. Yes, we have mitigation based on that understanding of the mechanism. And we think we’ll get back to flying in late spring or early summer. We believe things will go well after that and we’ll be on our way to completing the [international space] station.

"Orlando Sentinel: What happens if on the next mission, STS-121, things don’t go well and you see big pieces of foam come off the tank again that are in excess of your design restrictions?

"Griffin: I can’t get into that kind of speculation. Obviously, it would be a major hiccup and we would have to deal with it.

"Orlando Sentinel: Could the program survive that politically?

"Griffin: I just don’t even know. I’m not going to speculate. I just can’t. There are too many branch paths. Right now, we are devoting our resources to flying and flying well. That’s how you have to think."

In a situation like that, if YOU were Griffin, wouldn't YOU be eager to get rid of this whole thing at the slightest opportunity? It's not only a white elephant; it's a dangerous rogue white elephant. Griffin, contrary to Bell, surely isn't deliberately making the next Shuttle flight more dangerous than it needs to be -- but it is unavoidably extremely dangerous; he knows it; and I think at the slightest indication that the foam problem hasn't been completely solved he will seize the opportunity to say it's time to kill Shuttle-ISS completely.
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- BruceMoomaw   The Last 10 Days In The Space Shuttle's Bunker?   Feb 21 2006, 03:05 AM
- - Richard Trigaux   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 21 2006, 04:05 A...   Feb 21 2006, 05:49 AM
- - djellison   One of Maggie Thatchers few highlights - not invol...   Feb 21 2006, 08:17 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   "I still maintain that the US HAS to complete...   Feb 21 2006, 09:24 AM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 21 2006, 09:24 A...   Feb 21 2006, 09:47 AM
- - edstrick   One big lesson of the post-Columbia "test...   Feb 21 2006, 11:15 AM
- - Richard Trigaux   Without entering into the "gordian-knot mess...   Feb 21 2006, 03:15 PM
- - PhilCo126   As we already mentioned in the 2nd BIS book on the...   Feb 21 2006, 03:58 PM
|- - MahFL   Its going to take much much longer than anyone thi...   Feb 21 2006, 05:23 PM
- - Richard Trigaux   When I think back twenty years ago, when the shutt...   Feb 21 2006, 05:34 PM
|- - dilo   QUOTE (Richard Trigaux @ Feb 21 2006, 06...   Feb 21 2006, 09:33 PM
|- - Bob Shaw   QUOTE (Richard Trigaux @ Feb 21 2006, 05...   Feb 21 2006, 10:32 PM
|- - dilo   QUOTE (Bob Shaw @ Feb 21 2006, 11:32 PM) ...   Feb 22 2006, 08:46 AM
|- - Bob Shaw   QUOTE (dilo @ Feb 22 2006, 08:46 AM) Perh...   Feb 22 2006, 10:55 PM
|- - dilo   QUOTE (Bob Shaw @ Feb 22 2006, 11:55 PM) ...   Feb 23 2006, 07:12 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   While I will agree that it's insane (even give...   Feb 22 2006, 01:19 AM
- - gpurcell   Look, the simplest explanation for the official an...   Feb 22 2006, 07:01 AM
|- - Richard Trigaux   QUOTE (gpurcell @ Feb 22 2006, 08:01 AM) ...   Feb 22 2006, 07:47 AM
|- - The Messenger   QUOTE (Richard Trigaux @ Feb 22 2006, 12...   Feb 23 2006, 05:44 PM
|- - ljk4-1   QUOTE (The Messenger @ Feb 23 2006, 12:44...   Feb 23 2006, 05:53 PM
- - edstrick   We have to remember that the IDEA of a space shutt...   Feb 22 2006, 08:57 AM
- - PhilCo126   After 25 years of Space Transportation System (STS...   Feb 22 2006, 09:45 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   An excellent case can be made that the basic conce...   Feb 22 2006, 11:21 AM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 22 2006, 03:21 A...   Feb 22 2006, 04:03 PM
- - dvandorn   And you can add to Truax's comments the commen...   Feb 22 2006, 03:43 PM
- - Bill Harris   It will be an endless debate of whether or not the...   Feb 22 2006, 05:24 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Feb 22 2006, 04:03 PM...   Feb 23 2006, 01:00 AM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 22 2006, 05:00 P...   Feb 23 2006, 03:47 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   You can find an overall summary of Thompson's ...   Feb 23 2006, 01:17 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (dvandorn @ Feb 22 2006, 03:43 PM) ...   Feb 23 2006, 01:29 AM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 23 2006, 01:29 A...   Feb 23 2006, 01:38 AM
|- - lyford   QUOTE (AlexBlackwell @ Feb 22 2006, 05:38...   Feb 23 2006, 02:06 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Feb 23 2006, 03:47 AM...   Feb 23 2006, 04:37 AM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 23 2006, 04:37 A...   Feb 23 2006, 04:12 PM
|- - hugh   I wouldn’t have called Bruce’s posts a “rant”. I d...   Feb 25 2006, 07:03 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (dvandorn @ Feb 22 2006, 03:43 PM) ...   Feb 23 2006, 04:52 AM
|- - Stephen   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 23 2006, 04:52 A...   Feb 23 2006, 10:33 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (AlexBlackwell @ Feb 23 2006, 04:12...   Feb 24 2006, 01:55 AM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 01:55 A...   Feb 24 2006, 02:08 AM
|- - RNeuhaus   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 23 2006, 08:55 P...   Feb 24 2006, 03:21 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   You've just said yourself that American politi...   Feb 24 2006, 03:17 AM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 03:17 A...   Feb 24 2006, 04:20 PM
- - dvandorn   Watch it, Rodolfo -- if you worked for NASA, this ...   Feb 24 2006, 04:21 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   If I may make a smart-alecky crack, the world has ...   Feb 24 2006, 04:02 PM
|- - Richard Trigaux   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 05:02 P...   Feb 24 2006, 05:25 PM
- - djellison   So what you're saying is that NASA should be d...   Feb 24 2006, 04:11 PM
- - djellison   We all know that Bruce is just someone who has to ...   Feb 24 2006, 05:00 PM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 24 2006, 05:00 PM)...   Feb 24 2006, 05:08 PM
- - djellison   You have to be stern and strict with him or he won...   Feb 24 2006, 05:22 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   At the risk of getting thrown out of this group by...   Feb 24 2006, 07:31 PM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 07:31 P...   Feb 24 2006, 08:09 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 24 2006, 05:00 PM)...   Feb 24 2006, 08:03 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 24 2006, 04:11 PM)...   Feb 24 2006, 08:13 PM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 08:13 P...   Feb 24 2006, 08:22 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (AlexBlackwell @ Feb 24 2006, 08:09...   Feb 24 2006, 08:27 PM
- - AlexBlackwell   I'll leave you with the last word in our debat...   Feb 24 2006, 08:42 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 08:03 P...   Feb 24 2006, 08:54 PM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 08:54 P...   Feb 24 2006, 09:59 PM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 08:54 P...   Mar 18 2006, 12:50 AM
- - David   I don't see why the U.S./Soviet space race was...   Feb 24 2006, 11:21 PM
- - dvandorn   Well, Bruce, since *no* country on Earth has ever ...   Feb 25 2006, 02:01 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 24 2006, 09:59 PM)...   Feb 25 2006, 02:23 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (dvandorn @ Feb 25 2006, 02:01 AM) ...   Feb 25 2006, 02:58 AM
|- - David   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 25 2006, 02:58 A...   Feb 25 2006, 03:46 AM
|- - dvandorn   QUOTE (David @ Feb 24 2006, 09:46 PM) Is ...   Feb 25 2006, 04:39 AM
- - Richard Trigaux   About the motives of exploration (Earth exploratio...   Feb 25 2006, 06:39 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   Well, I guess I'll have to stay "provocat...   Feb 25 2006, 11:47 PM
|- - Bob Shaw   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 25 2006, 11:47 P...   Feb 26 2006, 12:21 AM
||- - David   QUOTE (Bob Shaw @ Feb 26 2006, 12:21 AM) ...   Feb 26 2006, 03:06 AM
||- - Richard Trigaux   QUOTE (David @ Feb 26 2006, 04:06 AM) My ...   Feb 26 2006, 07:55 AM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 25 2006, 03:47 P...   Feb 26 2006, 03:56 AM
- - lyford   I appreciate the range of opinionated opinions exp...   Feb 26 2006, 01:47 AM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (lyford @ Feb 26 2006, 01:47 AM) PS...   Feb 26 2006, 09:41 AM
|- - lyford   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 26 2006, 01:41 AM)...   Feb 26 2006, 04:57 PM
|- - mchan   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 26 2006, 01:41 AM)...   Feb 27 2006, 07:09 AM
|- - helvick   QUOTE (mchan @ Feb 27 2006, 07:09 AM) I u...   Feb 27 2006, 06:13 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   I think the trouble stems from the fact that E-mai...   Feb 26 2006, 10:42 AM
- - djellison   Bingo. Doug   Feb 26 2006, 04:59 PM
- - Richard Trigaux   Doug, I would like to back mchan's last post,...   Feb 27 2006, 08:36 AM
- - djellison   The discussions about ID or SETI may be civil and ...   Feb 27 2006, 08:39 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   OK, acceptable. I can always go rant elsewhere......   Mar 1 2006, 11:53 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   Yeah, I saw that, and was cranking up to comment o...   Mar 18 2006, 03:45 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   Jeff Bell has for some time been confidently predi...   Mar 21 2006, 04:45 AM
|- - The Messenger   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Mar 20 2006, 09:45 P...   Mar 21 2006, 09:08 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   Well, my God, that's because at this point the...   Mar 21 2006, 10:41 PM


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