Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
 May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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 Member  Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12  |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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SFJCody Gut feeling... May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
john_s Too low according to my gut, which reports in at a... May 22 2008, 08:23 PM
SFJCody QUOTE (john_s @ May 22 2008, 09:23 PM) To... May 22 2008, 08:26 PM djellison I've been trying to figure this out for myself... May 22 2008, 08:54 PM ElkGroveDan I'll say 83% which is the ratio of successful ... May 22 2008, 09:03 PM centsworth_II QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 05:03 P... May 22 2008, 09:23 PM SFJCody QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 10:03 P... May 22 2008, 09:42 PM climber QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 11:03 P... May 23 2008, 04:04 AM dvandorn QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 04:03 P... May 23 2008, 04:41 AM climber QUOTE (dvandorn @ May 23 2008, 06:41 AM) ... May 23 2008, 04:53 AM kwan3217 Quotes removed. Better use the "add reply... May 23 2008, 06:28 AM tim53 QUOTE (kwan3217 @ May 22 2008, 10:28 PM) ... May 23 2008, 02:42 PM djellison QUOTE (tim53 @ May 23 2008, 03:42 PM) I j... May 23 2008, 03:22 PM tedstryk With all the MPL discussion and the fact that we h... May 22 2008, 09:04 PM mcaplinger QUOTE (tedstryk @ May 22 2008, 01:04 PM) ... May 22 2008, 09:43 PM ugordan My greatest paranoia, when it comes to Mars lander... May 22 2008, 09:08 PM ustrax My gut feeling...having into account the previous ... May 22 2008, 09:22 PM climber QUOTE (djellison @ May 22 2008, 10:54 PM)... May 24 2008, 12:51 PM nprev QUOTE (climber @ May 24 2008, 04:51 AM) B... May 24 2008, 12:59 PM climber QUOTE (nprev @ May 24 2008, 02:59 PM) Oka... May 24 2008, 02:31 PM kwan3217 Around 90%. I have seen many movies and animations... May 22 2008, 09:30 PM SpaceListener I have high trust about the Phoenix's EDL plan... May 22 2008, 10:53 PM nprev Gotta go with 90% or greater. They've learned ... May 23 2008, 02:20 AM centsworth_II QUOTE (nprev @ May 22 2008, 09:20 PM) Got... May 23 2008, 02:23 AM nprev Thanks for the nod, Climber, but it was actually C... May 23 2008, 04:35 AM mike I say the odds of a successful landing are 100%. May 23 2008, 04:45 AM Decepticon Nozomi: 10%
Beagle 2: 50%
MER A: 90%
MER B: 90%
Ma... May 23 2008, 07:31 AM akuo QUOTE (Decepticon @ May 23 2008, 08:31 AM... May 23 2008, 08:49 AM ugordan QUOTE (akuo @ May 23 2008, 10:49 AM) What... May 23 2008, 09:24 AM climber QUOTE (Decepticon @ May 23 2008, 09:31 AM... May 23 2008, 10:35 AM MahFL Frankly I am amazed ANY of them ever work, because... May 23 2008, 12:49 PM Zvezdichko With regards to your opinion, the powered descent ... May 23 2008, 07:38 AM Decepticon QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 23 2008, 03:38 AM... May 23 2008, 03:47 PM centsworth_II QUOTE (Decepticon @ May 23 2008, 11:47 AM... May 23 2008, 03:56 PM Tesheiner Well, after a very detailed and accurate analysis ... May 23 2008, 08:02 AM edstrick I'll go with a guess at something like 85%.
... May 23 2008, 08:10 AM edstrick Mars 6 (1973) used a similar system to Pathfinder ... May 23 2008, 09:34 AM djellison 5mph they keep saying - 2.5ish m/sec
2.5 m/sec to... May 23 2008, 01:26 PM Stu To be honest I can't even bring myself to thin... May 23 2008, 01:32 PM djellison I am genuinely beginning to get a physical reactio... May 23 2008, 02:11 PM nprev Be chilly, you guys, keep an even keel...really, i... May 23 2008, 02:23 PM jamescanvin Me too, I've already got that nervous-butterfl... May 23 2008, 02:29 PM Zvezdichko Same here. I woke up early with a stomach pain
... May 23 2008, 02:41 PM nprev What's weird is that I sweated blood before bo... May 23 2008, 02:56 PM tanjent This is what markets are good for. We can all exch... May 23 2008, 03:31 PM imipak QUOTE (tanjent @ May 23 2008, 04:31 PM) A... May 23 2008, 07:31 PM mcaplinger QUOTE (imipak @ May 23 2008, 11:31 AM) Th... May 23 2008, 08:36 PM Zvezdichko You are right, of course, but this technology hasn... May 23 2008, 03:59 PM centsworth_II QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 23 2008, 11:59 AM... May 23 2008, 04:03 PM ugordan QUOTE (centsworth_II @ May 23 2008, 06:03... May 23 2008, 04:19 PM nprev One thing to remember is that flight control algor... May 23 2008, 04:25 PM Zvezdichko QUOTE (nprev @ May 23 2008, 04:25 PM) The... May 23 2008, 05:44 PM climber This topic is definitely the "hotest" to... May 23 2008, 04:30 PM MahFL So if one of the legs hits a 0.5 meter high rock d... May 23 2008, 05:03 PM centsworth_II QUOTE (MahFL @ May 23 2008, 01:03 PM) So ... May 23 2008, 05:25 PM ustrax QUOTE (MahFL @ May 23 2008, 06:03 PM) So ... May 23 2008, 06:14 PM Alex Chapman My personal feeling is that the landing is going t... May 23 2008, 09:17 PM centsworth_II I love peanuts, I eat them every day. I'm eati... May 23 2008, 10:01 PM SFJCody QUOTE (centsworth_II @ May 23 2008, 11:01... May 23 2008, 10:18 PM climber Back to the original question, if one would try to... May 24 2008, 03:10 AM Nice Guy I worked on MPL, and MER (and Mars Observer as wel... May 24 2008, 05:12 AM centsworth_II QUOTE (Nice Guy @ May 24 2008, 01:12 AM) ... May 24 2008, 05:40 AM climber QUOTE (Nice Guy @ May 24 2008, 07:12 AM) ... May 24 2008, 12:58 PM climber Welcome to UMSF Nice Guy! You couldn't hav... May 24 2008, 05:25 AM edstrick The EDL landing simulation video is 1.) time compr... May 24 2008, 09:59 AM dmuller QUOTE (edstrick @ May 24 2008, 07:59 PM) ... May 24 2008, 10:46 AM ugordan QUOTE (dmuller @ May 24 2008, 12:46 PM) I... May 24 2008, 10:56 AM dmuller QUOTE (ugordan @ May 24 2008, 08:56 PM) I... May 24 2008, 11:09 AM Sunspot QUOTE (SFJCody @ May 22 2008, 09:15 PM) N... May 24 2008, 11:01 AM Zvezdichko Beagle 2 - I gave about 30%
MER A or MER B - 85%, ... May 24 2008, 11:06 AM Doc QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 24 2008, 02:06 PM... May 24 2008, 11:15 AM Zvezdichko QUOTE (Doc @ May 24 2008, 11:15 AM) This ... May 24 2008, 11:21 AM tedstryk QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 24 2008, 12:21 PM... May 24 2008, 01:07 PM dmuller QUOTE (Doc @ May 24 2008, 09:15 PM) This ... May 24 2008, 11:32 AM Doc QUOTE (dmuller @ May 24 2008, 02:32 PM) I... May 24 2008, 11:50 AM Alex Chapman QUOTE (Doc @ May 24 2008, 12:50 PM) From ... May 24 2008, 03:45 PM imipak QUOTE (Alex Chapman @ May 24 2008, 04:45 ... May 24 2008, 05:42 PM Doc A quote from the recent post on the Planetary Soci... May 24 2008, 11:06 AM Doc BTW-will the mission website provide realtime data... May 24 2008, 11:28 AM SFJCody Seems strange that powered descent + landing legs ... May 24 2008, 11:32 AM Zvezdichko I think it's because the powered descent hasn... May 24 2008, 11:47 AM PhilCo126 Well, it's not just EDL but EDFL ( Entry + Des... May 24 2008, 12:10 PM Juramike QUOTE (climber @ May 24 2008, 08:58 AM) W... May 24 2008, 04:32 PM Nice Guy I would like to point out that we try to learn fro... May 25 2008, 03:18 AM edstrick There is one point of concern regarding hearing th... May 25 2008, 10:45 AM Stu QUOTE (edstrick @ May 25 2008, 11:45 AM) ... May 25 2008, 10:48 AM Shaka I've got a gut feeling I ate too many peanuts.... May 25 2008, 06:59 PM marsbug I'm still on my first bag, good luck and godsp... May 25 2008, 07:28 PM ElkGroveDan Let's take it over to the EDL discussion
http... May 25 2008, 10:17 PM  |
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