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Mars 3 (Various Topics Merged)
tedstryk
post Dec 29 2004, 10:36 PM
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On my website sometime back, I added a page on the image fragment sent back by the Mars-3 Lander. I released serveral versions, including the best quality processing using othodox techniques I would use on other images plus colorization here:
http://pages.preferred.com/%7Etedstryk/fragmentc.jpg
However, I released another image, which I called a "What if" image. This image can be seen here http://pages.preferred.com/%7Etedstryk/m3s5b.jpg It was produced via extreme processing of the original data to make a Mars-like scene, but I made it clear on my website it was only a speculative image. I strongly doubt if the raw data even shows Mars at all - it could be all noise. But since this mode of processing looked strangely Viking-like, I figured I would put it on the web. I was warned by several, who said that while fun, some kooks might take it seriously. My response was that I really don't care what kooks think. Then I noticed this web page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_2
They used the overprocessed image. I feel like it is being presented as a true photograph. This is of concern.


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Guest_BruceMoomaw_*
post Apr 18 2006, 10:18 PM
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The Soviets actually do firmly know why Mars 2 failed, as V.G. Perminov said in his interesting historical document "The Difficult Road to Mars". They didn't trust the accuracy of their radio tracking network, so they incorporated an optical guidance system into the Mars 2 and 3 orbiters to allow them to calculate the optimal course for their final pre-arrival midcourse correction. Unfortunately, the Soviets had slightly inaccurate data on Mars' ephermeris, and so -- while Mars 2's onboard system worked as planned -- it ended up putting its lander onto a course directed at too steep an entry angle, which would have led to the lander crashing in any case before its parachute could properly brake it.

The Bad Luck Fairy that has always haunted the Russian Mars program struck in a particularly brutal way that time. First, the next year the US (as part of a planetary science data exchange program) provided the Soviets with a corrected Martian ephemeris -- and, second, it turned out afterwards that if the onboard optical system HADN'T made that correction, Mars 2's preexisting approach trajectory would, by pure luck, have put the lander on a properly shallow entry!

The failures of the Mars 3 and 6 landers remain more mysterious. Perminov expresses his suspicion that Mars 3 might perhaps have been knocked out by an electrostatic discharge from the giant dust storm it landed in. As for Mars 6, it failed at about the time its final solid-fueled braking rocket was supposed to fire -- meaning that the rocket could have fired at an inappropriate time due to Martian conditions, failed to fire at all, or exploded.
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The Messenger
post Apr 19 2006, 03:59 PM
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QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Apr 18 2006, 04:18 PM) *
The Soviets actually do firmly know why Mars 2 failed, as V.G. Perminov said in his interesting historical document "The Difficult Road to Mars". They didn't trust the accuracy of their radio tracking network, so they incorporated an optical guidance system into the Mars 2 and 3 orbiters to allow them to calculate the optimal course for their final pre-arrival midcourse correction. Unfortunately, the Soviets had slightly inaccurate data on Mars' ephermeris, and so -- while Mars 2's onboard system worked as planned -- it ended up putting its lander onto a course directed at too steep an entry angle, which would have led to the lander crashing in any case before its parachute could properly brake it.

The Bad Luck Fairy that has always haunted the Russian Mars program struck in a particularly brutal way that time. First, the next year the US (as part of a planetary science data exchange program) provided the Soviets with a corrected Martian ephemeris -- and, second, it turned out afterwards that if the onboard optical system HADN'T made that correction, Mars 2's preexisting approach trajectory would, by pure luck, have put the lander on a properly shallow entry!

The failures of the Mars 3 and 6 landers remain more mysterious. Perminov expresses his suspicion that Mars 3 might perhaps have been knocked out by an electrostatic discharge from the giant dust storm it landed in...

This is a discussion we should have been having two years ago, right after the MER's descended more rapidly than expected...and it would be helpful if complete engineering Doppler and accelerometer data would be made public so that we can work the problem. Sheeesh.

Perminov's speculation that Mars 3 suffered a static incident is just that: He pointed out probes entering the Venician atmosphere snap crackled and popped, but he has no data from Mars to support this guess. We have had two probes scurrying around Mars for two years now without a single mention of a static event, making Perminov’s theory even more suspect. (Spirit and Opportunity didn’t even experience plasma blackouts.)

Likewise, blaming the Mars 2 failure on both a bad ephemeris and a bad self-correction is a little like insisting the failures of both Beagle and the Polar Lander were absolutely caused by bad engineering, now that another likely suspect has emerged.

There have been a lot of hints something isn’t right in earlier missions: Both Viking craft experienced accelerations that indicate an ‘over performance’ of the parachutes, while the Pathfinder EDL indicated an ‘under performance’ of the same design. I think both characterizations are in error: The Pathfinder did not contain accelerometers, relying on Doppler, while Viking did not have Doppler, but did have accelerometers. If you run the numbers, it is easy to see how in both cases greater acceleration than expected would end up as puzzling drag coefficients. Too many degrees of freedom! More sensors needed!

It is no secret my own bias towards an exceptional solution skews my interpretations of these events, but until we have all the facts on the table, it is difficult to judge which of the many possible scenerios have led to so many failures. PhilHorzempa’s correct; a reevaluation is in order, and for heaven’s sake let’s figure out how to properly characterize the atmosphere!
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mcaplinger
post Apr 19 2006, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE (The Messenger @ Apr 19 2006, 08:59 AM) *
and it would be helpful if complete engineering Doppler and accelerometer data would be made public so that we can work the problem. Sheeesh.

Have you actually looked at the data that have been released to assess their adequacy? The pre-entry state of the MERs, which is what people have complained about, are on the NAIF FTP site, I believe. All of the raw data appears to be out there to do whatever EDL reconstruction you want; I don't think that the MR doppler tracking is actually useful for the reconstruction, but I believe it was archived with the MOC PDS releases quite a while back.


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Disclaimer: This post is based on public information only. Any opinions are my own.
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The Messenger
post Apr 19 2006, 05:56 PM
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QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Apr 19 2006, 10:20 AM) *
Have you actually looked at the data that have been released to assess their adequacy?

Yes and no. I have made inquires, and been told the engineering data is not going to be made publicly available.
QUOTE
The pre-entry state of the MERs, which is what people have complained about, are on the NAIF FTP site, I believe.

All of the raw data appears to be out there to do whatever EDL reconstruction you want; I don't think that the MR doppler tracking is actually useful for the reconstruction, but I believe it was archived with the MOC PDS releases quite a while back.

Paul Withers wrote in an MER EDL paper he has submitted to Icarus, that he had to make a lot of approximations concerning initial conditions - perhaps the needed information is available now at the NAIF FTP site...whatever and where ever that is. If it is where I have been looking before, there are a lot of 'expected' tables, but the "reconstructed" or actual descent data is just not there. Paul emailed to me that he thought some of the data is ITAR restricted, but I don't see why. He also said that a well-funded study of the MER EDLs - comparable to earlier missions, is not 'in the budget' - I assumed he meant NASA isn't really taking these things apart, but I have been wrong before.

I've been raising my hand and holler'n that I think I can see a stunning trend for a year-and-a-half now. It is hard to get attention when so few people seem to know that the MERs almost splatted - Pathfinder too. As far as I know this is the first really public admission the missions were in jeopardy:

QUOTE (ToSeek)


At least now I can go to my congressman and tell him why we need to fund more Mars science before we can even dream of going there, because something is not well understood.
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Posts in this topic
- tedstryk   Mars 3 (Various Topics Merged)   Dec 29 2004, 10:36 PM
- - lyford   Since it's Wikipedia, can't you just delet...   Dec 29 2004, 11:09 PM
- - tedstryk   Thanks. I will be updating the Phobos-2 section s...   Dec 30 2004, 01:12 AM
- - PhilHorzempa   [size=2] With regard to the Soviet Mars lan...   Apr 18 2006, 10:02 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   The Soviets actually do firmly know why Mars 2 fai...   Apr 18 2006, 10:18 PM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Apr 18 2006, 10:18 P...   Apr 18 2006, 10:41 PM
|- - The Messenger   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Apr 18 2006, 04:18 P...   Apr 19 2006, 03:59 PM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (The Messenger @ Apr 19 2006, 08:59...   Apr 19 2006, 04:20 PM
|- - The Messenger   QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Apr 19 2006, 10:20 AM...   Apr 19 2006, 05:56 PM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (The Messenger @ Apr 19 2006, 10:56...   Apr 19 2006, 06:20 PM
|- - The Messenger   QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Apr 19 2006, 12:20 PM...   Apr 21 2006, 03:53 PM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (The Messenger @ Apr 21 2006, 08:53...   Apr 21 2006, 04:28 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   Oh, yes, Perminov goes into great detail about the...   Apr 19 2006, 02:49 PM
- - PhilHorzempa   [size=2] This discussion is very relevant to ...   Apr 19 2006, 04:53 PM
- - tasp   Sorry I can't cite a reference for this, but i...   Apr 19 2006, 05:51 PM
- - ljk4-1   Two very relevant documents to this thread online:...   Apr 19 2006, 06:01 PM
- - tasp   QUOTE (tedstryk @ Dec 29 2004, 05:36 PM) ...   Apr 19 2006, 06:06 PM
- - Phil Stooke   tasp said "can any amount of processing put c...   Apr 19 2006, 08:12 PM
- - djellison   My take on it is - it might be a real picture, and...   Apr 19 2006, 08:41 PM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (djellison @ Apr 19 2006, 08:41 PM)...   Apr 19 2006, 10:16 PM
|- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (tedstryk @ Apr 19 2006, 10:16 PM) ...   Apr 20 2006, 01:52 AM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Apr 20 2006, 01:52 A...   Apr 20 2006, 02:35 AM
- - ljk4-1   As I recall, the famous Mars 3 image was first sho...   Apr 20 2006, 12:22 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   Yeah, atmospheric conditions would have a lot to d...   Apr 20 2006, 05:05 AM
- - ljk4-1   This company (which I have no involvement with) is...   May 1 2006, 04:01 PM
|- - Bob Shaw   QUOTE (ljk4-1 @ May 1 2006, 05:01 PM...   May 1 2006, 05:08 PM
|- - tedstryk   I have one, and am quite fond of it   May 1 2006, 08:28 PM
- - vikingmars   QUOTE (tedstryk @ Dec 30 2004, 12:36 AM) ...   May 2 2006, 08:37 AM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (vikingmars @ May 2 2006, 08:37 AM)...   May 2 2006, 09:32 AM
- - djellison   Might it be a vertically oriented image, but with ...   May 2 2006, 09:59 AM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (djellison @ May 2 2006, 09:59 AM) ...   May 2 2006, 10:23 AM
|- - 4th rock from the sun   QUOTE (djellison @ May 2 2006, 10:59 AM) ...   May 2 2006, 01:44 PM
|- - vikingmars   QUOTE (4th rock from the sun @ May 2 2006, 03...   May 3 2006, 08:57 AM
- - 4th rock from the sun   Just some data, to make things clearer: The Mars ...   May 3 2006, 03:14 PM
- - PhilHorzempa   I thought that we could try to get the record stra...   May 10 2006, 04:42 AM
- - Phil Stooke   I have never heard 'Mars 8' used for that ...   May 10 2006, 04:59 PM
|- - ljk4-1   QUOTE (Phil Stooke @ May 10 2006, 12:59 P...   May 10 2006, 05:23 PM
|- - tedstryk   Mars '96 would have been Mars 8 if it hadn...   May 10 2006, 05:29 PM
- - Zvezdichko   36 years ago, on this very same day, 2 December 19...   Dec 2 2007, 11:58 AM
- - Adam   I might be wrong, but wasn't it pretty much de...   Dec 2 2007, 12:12 PM
- - Zvezdichko   Yes. There have been speculations based on this im...   Dec 2 2007, 12:16 PM
- - nprev   A date & an achievement worth noting to be sur...   Dec 2 2007, 01:17 PM
- - Zvezdichko   Yes, only 14 years after Sputnik mankind achieved ...   Dec 2 2007, 10:33 PM
|- - dilo   Perhaps a little bit OT, but not completely... Tod...   Dec 2 2007, 11:14 PM
|- - peter59   QUOTE (dilo @ Dec 3 2007, 12:14 AM) Is in...   Dec 3 2007, 06:13 PM
|- - dilo   QUOTE (peter59 @ Dec 3 2007, 07:13 PM) EX...   Dec 4 2007, 04:28 PM
- - nprev   You're absolutely right, Dilo...we need to kee...   Dec 3 2007, 02:48 AM
- - Shaka   Good, that makes three dreamers at UMSF. How many ...   Dec 3 2007, 05:20 AM
|- - marsbug   QUOTE (Shaka @ Dec 3 2007, 05:20 AM) Go...   Dec 4 2007, 04:48 PM
- - PDP8E   another more recent thread (36 years on mars) has ...   Dec 3 2007, 02:56 PM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (PDP8E @ Dec 3 2007, 02:56 PM) anot...   Dec 3 2007, 05:22 PM
- - PhilCo126   Wait one minute, a topic on spacecraft lost around...   Dec 4 2007, 06:55 PM
- - PDP8E   MY SPECULATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SOVIET MARS 3 LANDE...   Dec 12 2007, 06:57 PM
|- - vikingmars   QUOTE (PDP8E @ Dec 12 2007, 07:57 PM) Som...   Dec 16 2007, 09:34 PM
- - Phil Stooke   "Its easy…look in and near northern Ptolemy C...   Dec 12 2007, 07:50 PM
- - djellison   So a 400km x 400km search box. 160,000 sqkm That...   Dec 12 2007, 08:02 PM
- - PDP8E   A brief scan of the web turned up these images of ...   Dec 14 2007, 03:51 PM
|- - Paolo   QUOTE (PDP8E @ Dec 14 2007, 04:51 PM) A b...   Dec 15 2007, 08:18 AM
- - PhilCo126   Thanks for sharing those photos and only the black...   Dec 15 2007, 05:54 PM
- - PDP8E   We have had 8 more inches of snow today on top of ...   Dec 16 2007, 08:36 PM
- - Geert   Various sources all seem to confirm that the camer...   Jun 6 2008, 07:56 AM
|- - tedstryk   Two or three minutes into the transmission, the fi...   Jun 6 2008, 01:50 PM
- - aconnell   Dear Tedstryk. I'd be really grateful if you c...   Jun 6 2008, 05:11 PM
|- - tedstryk   It was an image I clearly labeled a "what if...   Jun 6 2008, 05:46 PM
- - nprev   I don't know, Ted. They're undeniably fasc...   Jun 6 2008, 07:06 PM
|- - tedstryk   nprev, as I said in my description at the beginnin...   Jun 6 2008, 08:26 PM
- - Geert   On his excellent site on Soviet Space Cameras ( ht...   Jun 7 2008, 08:42 AM
- - aconnell   Many thanks Ted. I can remember as a teenager in t...   Jun 7 2008, 02:09 PM
|- - tedstryk   It is a shame they didn't start the transmissi...   Jun 7 2008, 02:26 PM
- - Zvezdichko   Conspiracy theorists are and will always be a lost...   Jun 7 2008, 02:39 PM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ Jun 7 2008, 02:39 PM)...   Jun 7 2008, 03:02 PM
- - Zvezdichko   Yeah, MetNet is an elegant decision. However, I...   Jun 7 2008, 03:23 PM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ Jun 7 2008, 03:23 PM)...   Jun 7 2008, 03:28 PM
|- - tedstryk   Oh, OK, in the sense of possible launch failure. ...   Jun 7 2008, 03:46 PM
- - Zvezdichko   I personally see Volna as an unreliable vehicle.   Jun 7 2008, 03:35 PM
- - Zvezdichko   Yeah, that's what I meant. Volna failed to lau...   Jun 7 2008, 03:49 PM
|- - tedstryk   My guess is that the little Chinese orbiter took i...   Jun 7 2008, 03:54 PM
- - Zvezdichko   I understand, but I also don't see how the des...   Jun 7 2008, 04:02 PM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ Jun 7 2008, 04:02 PM)...   Jun 7 2008, 04:05 PM
- - Zvezdichko   You are probably right. The Chinese orbiter will b...   Jun 7 2008, 04:17 PM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ Jun 7 2008, 05:17 PM)...   Jun 7 2008, 06:16 PM
- - Zvezdichko   Yeah, that's why the failure of Mars 96 was re...   Jun 7 2008, 06:41 PM
|- - tedstryk   I hope it makes it on there! By the way, here...   Jun 8 2008, 04:34 AM
- - Zvezdichko   Ted, I'm reading the upper link with a great i...   Jun 8 2008, 07:54 AM
|- - tedstryk   I don't think the Mars-6 flyby module took ima...   Jun 8 2008, 12:52 PM
|- - Geert   QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ Jun 8 2008, 02:54 PM)...   Jun 9 2008, 05:12 AM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (Geert @ Jun 9 2008, 06:12 AM) The ...   Jun 9 2008, 12:53 PM
- - Phil Stooke   A different story on Mars 2 and Mars 3. Where d...   Feb 5 2009, 12:14 AM
|- - tedstryk   According to Sasha Basilevsky, Hellas was chosen f...   Feb 5 2009, 12:39 AM
- - Phil Stooke   Yikes - Google Mars has Mars 2 at the stupid Wikip...   Feb 5 2009, 04:36 AM
|- - Geert   QUOTE (Phil Stooke @ Feb 5 2009, 11:36 AM...   Feb 6 2009, 09:38 AM
- - Phil Stooke   Way off course by a few hundred km maybe, not half...   Feb 6 2009, 11:50 AM
|- - Geert   QUOTE (Phil Stooke @ Feb 6 2009, 06:50 PM...   Feb 7 2009, 04:51 AM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (Geert @ Feb 7 2009, 05:51 AM) It i...   Feb 7 2009, 01:47 PM
|- - DDAVIS   'The fact that the landingsites were chosen fr...   Feb 7 2009, 10:05 PM
- - Phil Stooke   Hi Don! You are thinking of Mars 6. The Mari...   Feb 7 2009, 11:16 PM
- - Phil Stooke   http://www.laspace.ru/rus/mars23.php Lavochkin we...   Feb 14 2009, 02:51 AM
|- - Geert   QUOTE (Phil Stooke @ Feb 14 2009, 09:51 A...   Feb 14 2009, 05:26 AM
- - Geert   Forgot to mention that according to the above reas...   Feb 14 2009, 05:41 AM
- - nprev   Thank you for this very comprehensive and interest...   Feb 14 2009, 07:10 AM
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