Leonids 2009, Storm on mild shower? Options

[Spin0]

Just a few hours to go until meteor shower Leonids peak. Estimates of the peak time and associated meteor flux vary a lot, but peak flux is estimated to take place about 20h40m to 22h UT.

Predicting meteor showers and their meteor flux is notoriously difficult. According to some models tonight's meteor flux is estimated to peak at tens to hundreds meteors per hour, some even hint at possible meteor storm with 1000-1500 meteors per hour. So there's a small chance for a show of the lifetime!


Flux estimator for your area: http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/estimator.html

Leonids and estimates in International Meteor Organization's meteor calendar: http://www.imo.net/calendar/2009#leo

NASA scientist predicts meteor flux to peak at 500 meteors per hour: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/04...leonids2009.htm


Sadly it's 100% cloudy here in Helsinki, Finland.

[imipak]

Tip: deckchair, plenty of warm clothing, no optical aid needed apart from the Mark I eyeball, human for the use of. space.com piece on Leonids 2009: http://www.space.com/spacewatch/091113-200...eor-shower.html

Just don't expect a storm, unless it happens. One or two a minute is a respectable rate.

[dilo]

Based on this chart, peak occurred near 21.20 UTC with 166 ZHR level.

[JohnVV]

Just don't expect a storm

except for the water type

cloudy here in Mich.