Pool: Arrival at Victoria, Place your bets... Options

[ustrax]

Mine is 9th!!!

So...Who got the 8th?...

And the rest of you guys? What's your birthday? (Maybe it is better to do this on a Chit Chat new topic...)


Toma B was born on the 1st of July...Is this a crab conspiracy?!!!

Doug got December's 23rd...

[Bob Shaw]

Can't recall - did we ever precisely define what "arrival" means? Does it mean sitting on the ledge? How close to the edge? What Sol shall we use as a benchmark to define "arrival" at Endurance, so that we can use similar criteria for arrival at Victoria?

I think we should bow to the wisdom of the actual MER drivers - they'll announce 'arrival day', never fear!

Bob Shaw

[ElkGroveDan]

Doug came up with a good one here

I have two suggestions,

a ) first image of any portion of the dunes inside Victoria or

b ) first contact with any exposed pavement along the rim (since it's clear there is none on the "slopes")

[centsworth_II]

a ) first image of any portion of the dunes inside Victoria or
b ) first contact with any exposed pavement along the rim

"a" is a great idea, "b" is terrible. IMHO

[alan]

So...Who got the 8th?...

And the rest of you guys? What's your birthday? (Maybe it is better to do this on a Chit Chat new topic...)
Toma B was born on the 1st of July...Is this a crab conspiracy?!!!

Doug got December's 23rd...

mines July 29th, someone at JPL was forcasting arrival in late July

[ustrax]

I have two suggestions,

a ) first image of any portion of the dunes inside Victoria or

b ) first contact with any exposed pavement along the rim (since it's clear there is none on the "slopes")

Well...I believe this was the day we celebrated the arrival at Endurance...What a great day that was! :

http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportuni...cam/2004-04-30/

Edited: First Forward-HazCam picture could be another hypothesis...This was the first one for Endurance:

http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportuni...23P1201L0M1.JPG

mines July 29th, someone at JPL was forcasting arrival in late July

We can start filling the gaps in July...We've got 1, 7, 9, 10, 29...That will be a full party month...
And let's hope someone will have a large and deep reason for celebrations...

[Guest_Oersted_*]

I'd say that first pic of part of the bottom dune is the best way to define it too. (And I'm not in the running, so that's an objective voice!)

[RNeuhaus]

Can't recall - did we ever precisely define what "arrival" means? Does it mean sitting on the ledge? How close to the edge? What Sol shall we use as a benchmark to define "arrival" at Endurance, so that we can use similar criteria for arrival at Victoria?

Ilbasso: Good question!

I think that the arrival date of VC means that Oppy is sitting on the edge of rim, let say, within a prudent distance to avoid in rolling or slipping down into the bottom of the crater.

Who else will concur it?

Rodolfo

Redited: I would rather vote for sitting on the edge of rim instead of a picture of VC's bottom. Picture will come, maybe, some soles later than sitting on the edge of rim.

[centsworth_II]

I would rather vote for sitting on the edge of rim instead of a picture of VC's bottom. Picture will come, maybe, some soles later than sitting on the edge of rim.

So we use the sol Opportunity arrived at the location from which the defining picture was taken, even if the picture is posted a day or two later.

[Nix]

sol 880 -1st day of first panorama- , 'bout time I joined in

Nico

[centsworth_II]

-1st day of first panorama-

I like the arrival date at the spot from which the first picture showing part of the bottom ripples is taken. They may spend a week or two jockying around after this time before beginning a panorama.

[Tesheiner]

I like this idea too, but I see also a problem given the size of VC.
Victoria is not like Endurance or Eagle. On those ones (E&E), the rover could be one day seeing nothing and on the next one, after just a 20m drive, see the whole or most part of the bottom. I don't think this will be the case with Victoria; we will start with just a glimpse of some features that may be dunes at the bottom and only after much more then 20m (think about 100m) we'll realise about the real truth.
There may be some (driving) sols of uncertainty when calling an "arrival day".

... but then we can start a pool to decide if something seen on sol X or X-1 was really part of the bottom dunes or not.

[Joffan]

I think we've got to be able to see the whole of the VC dune field. Just glimpsing a few dunes through a dip in the crater rim isn't enough to say we've arrived. The critical section should be the near edge of the dune field.

And yes, of course it's the sol that Opportunity arrives at that spot, not when the pictures are taken that's key.

[centsworth_II]

...with Victoria; we will start with just a glimpse of some features that may be dunes at the bottom and only after much more then 20m (think about 100m) we'll realise about the real truth.

Also, the bottom ripples may not confine themselves the a nice circular area at the base of the crater. Remember even at the much smaller Endurance, there were a few which reached up the side toward Opportunity's entry point. In fact, Opportunity made it to within a few feet of them before it got to dangerous. But I think all would agree that those high-reaching ripples were part of the overall field at the base. So even a ripple not at the bottom, but still part of the overall ripple field could be counted.

I think we've got to be able to see the whole of the VC dune field.

First glimpse will be much easier to judge, and more indicative of having arrived. Depending on the topography around the rim, it may be a long time after arrival before the entire bottom can be seen.

[Aberdeenastro]

Rodolfo,

Do you have an update on the possible arrival date at VC based on the rate of driving over the last few sols? Oppy is not allowed to arrive at VC between 6th and 22nd of July as I'm away on holiday with no access to a computer..... Please arrange a date either side of this...

Castor