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[GregM]

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[deglr6328]

10) He would not even hazard a guess as to what Home Plate might be. He said that he will no longer guess at what remote sensing shows, because in-situ investigations keep turning up surprises once they get there. His only equivocal response was something like  “there are few interesting things there”.

So he thinks it is not worth going there then? I don't understand why he would say that he thins there is nothing interesting there.

[GregM]

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[dilo]

6) The engineering folks are trying to do some sort of extrapolation on how long Spirit might live if there were no sudden catastrophic failures, and it just “wore out”. They have come up with a 25% chance that it might live 6 years at the current “wear rate”. The general talk is “several  years” of life at any rate. The main point is that as long as the wheels turn, the mission will continue to be funded.

If confirmed, this is the most beautful new after 1000 Sol extention!

[DDAVIS]

[quote=GregM,Oct 15 2005, 04:43 AM]
Today I attended a talk given by a gentleman directly associated with the science equipment on the MERs. He had a few very interesting items of note.
-snip- He said that this was a new finding – and I don’t know if this has been officially released yet, so I do not want to say more in the open here if this is not yet common knowledge. Although I am not a geologist, if it were confirmed – it would be a very big discovery, possibly the discovery of the whole MER mission.

If he was giving a talk publicly then anything that was said is fair game to repeat. There could have been reporters there as well, after all. You needn't feel intimidated from repeating publicly revealed informatuion. I see obvious layering in the rocks exposed in the summit, is this part of the 'revelations'?

Don

[Jeff7]

If confirmed, this is the most beautful new after 1000 Sol extention!     

6 years? That'd be crazy. I can see it on its last legs, two wheels still working, just slowly dragging it along until they overheat or burn out. Stationary observation time then. How long might the main mast's motors last?

[Cugel]

A matter of fact is that we haven't heard from Mr. PI Man himself since 4 October.
Maybe Steve is too busy counting his blessings?

[helvick]

6 years? That'd be crazy. I can see it on its last legs, two wheels still working, just slowly dragging it along until they overheat or burn out. Stationary observation time then. How long might the main mast's motors last?

25% chance of lasting 6 years? Interesting thought. Spirit's current power levels back that up though - it looks like we're not going to get any major dust storms this year so dust deposition rates this winter will be lower than last year (when there was a storm, just before the MER's landed) and power should be good at least until the onset of the winter after next. The odds of a storm seem to be between 20 and 30% for any Martian year so based on that 25% odds on lasting 6 years is fair enough.

That's just what the panels can generate though. I don't think the wear rates on the other components look so good.
The batteries were only tested to around 300 charge cycles (I think) so they are way out into uncharted territory already. They probably are good enough for 1000 cycles maybe even 1500 but I can't see them lasting for >10x their design. These are Li-Ion batteries, they are very good ones but the way they degrade measurably after every single charge cycle. Possibly the "deep sleep" operating mode allows the rovers to function with severely reduced batteries but no-one has made it clear yet if that's the case. Hopefully it is.
Keeping the wheels turning and the IDD moving for 6 years seems improbable to me. We've already seen wheel problems and they are after all pure mechanical components that are exposed to a severe environment.

But I'm very glad to see that someone in the know, so to speak, is prepared to say that there is such a high possibility of enough things continuing to work.

[Guest_Edward Schmitz_*]

He said 25% chance of six years. That's low odds. Given that they have lasted almost two and are in great shape, 25% chance for six years seams about right to me.

Doesn't seam like a stretch to me...

ed