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2003 Ub 313: The Incredible Shrinking Planet?, No bigger than Pluto?
Guest_BruceMoomaw_*
post Jan 31 2006, 09:20 PM
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(Thanks to Emily Lakdawalla):

http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2006/127/1
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elakdawalla
post Jan 31 2006, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Jan 31 2006, 01:20 PM)

Actually SigurRosFan deserves the credit! I must get half of my blog entry material from the sharp-eyed people on this site...
http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.p...indpost&p=39115

Since I posted that, I've gotten an email from someone saying that there will be a publication in Nature tomorrow that flip-flops again on the size of UB313 -- hopefully another sharp-eyed watcher will post that link here as soon as it appears!

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SFJCody
post Feb 1 2006, 12:19 AM
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QUOTE (elakdawalla @ Jan 31 2006, 09:36 PM)
Actually SigurRosFan deserves the credit!  I must get half of my blog entry material from the sharp-eyed people on this site...
http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.p...indpost&p=39115

Since I posted that, I've gotten an email from someone saying that there will be a publication in Nature tomorrow that flip-flops again on the size of UB313 -- hopefully another sharp-eyed watcher will post that link here as soon as it appears!

--Emily
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There's a post on the badastronomy forums saying that the orbital period of the satellite has been found to be 15.42 days. Not sure what the source was.
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Rob Pinnegar
post Feb 1 2006, 02:12 AM
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QUOTE (SFJCody @ Jan 31 2006, 06:19 PM)
There's a post on the badastronomy forums saying that the orbital period of the satellite has been found to be 15.42 days.

Four significant figures already, and with those fuzzed out images? Guess it could be true -- but it sure sounds like bad astronomy, alright.
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MichaelT
post Feb 1 2006, 10:32 AM
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I just read that the Max-Planck-Institute for Radio Astronomy in Bonn has confirmed a size of 3000 km. That was announced yesterday and can be read here (German). On the institute's website I could not find a press release, though. So I don't know any more details...

Michael
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SigurRosFan
post Feb 1 2006, 01:19 PM
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Here's the detailed press release:

- http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.p...indpost&p=39431

--- Note on reports of an HST size measurement (31.1.)

Mike Brown gave a public talk recently where he presented some preliminary results [Albedo 0.92 news] on an attempt to measure the size of UB313 with the Hubble Space Telescope. A journalist picked this up and reported it, against Mike Brown's explicit request. In response to this report Mike Brown stated on Jan 31:

"Contrary to rumors otherwise, we're just in the preliminary stages of analyzing the HST data. When we are done we should have a very precise measurement. The study that is coming out in Nature is the best info that we have for now about how big and reflective it is. The uncertainties are large, but it seems a solid result to me. I hope that we will have the HST analysis done within perhaps a month, and I'll be able to say more then." ---


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David
post Feb 1 2006, 01:34 PM
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QUOTE (SigurRosFan @ Feb 1 2006, 01:19 PM)


Then:
"The so-called "tenth planet," announced last July to much fanfare, is a "smidge" bigger than Pluto rather than earlier estimates of 25% to 50% larger, a planetary scientist reported here on 25 January."

Now:
"Here we report observations of the thermal emission of 2003 UB313 at a wavelength of 1.2 mm, which in combination with the measured optical brightness leads to a diameter of 3,000±300±100 km; here the first error reflects measurement uncertainties, while the second derives from the unknown object orientation."

If 2003 UB313 is 3000 km in diameter, then it is 30% larger than Pluto, which is a bit above the going rate for smidges these days. If it is at the lowest end of the given range (2600 km) it is still 14% larger than Pluto.
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Rob Pinnegar
post Feb 1 2006, 02:46 PM
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QUOTE (SigurRosFan @ Feb 1 2006, 07:19 AM)
A journalist picked this up and reported it, against Mike Brown's explicit request.

Yeah, you can always trust the discretion of the media. Hey, they wouldn't deliberately misinform the public just to sell newspapers!
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Guest_AlexBlackwell_*
post Feb 1 2006, 05:48 PM
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QUOTE (elakdawalla @ Jan 31 2006, 09:36 PM)
Since I posted that, I've gotten an email from someone saying that there will be a publication in Nature tomorrow that flip-flops again on the size of UB313 -- hopefully another sharp-eyed watcher will post that link here as soon as it appears!

From the February 2, 2006, issue of Nature: One over the nine.
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JRehling
post Feb 1 2006, 07:17 PM
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Incidentally, don't forget that Pluto "shrank" throughout its lifetime, too, in at least two steps. I can remember when it was bigger than Mercury, and maybe bigger than Mars. wink.gif

It would be interesting if size estimates consistently shrank for newly-discovered objects, as though there were a regression to the mean effect, or a pro-big bias on the part of the early researchers... Who wants to think that they discovered something tiny?

PS: Titan has shrunk a bit, too... wink.gif
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TritonAntares
post Feb 2 2006, 12:27 PM
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QUOTE (JRehling @ Feb 1 2006, 09:17 PM)
Incidentally, don't forget that Pluto "shrank" throughout its lifetime, too, in at least two steps. I can remember when it was bigger than Mercury, and maybe bigger than Mars.  wink.gif

It would be interesting if size estimates consistently shrank for newly-discovered objects, as though there were a regression to the mean effect, or a pro-big bias on the part of the early researchers... Who wants to think that they discovered something tiny?

PS: Titan has shrunk a bit, too...   wink.gif

...as Triton did.

As child I read in an old astronomy library book from the '50s - I think it was from Otto Struve - Triton's diameter should be ~6000 km:
'Wow, a moon nearly as large as Mars...' ohmy.gif
I'm not quite sure what it was before Voyager II - maybe about 3500 km,
but at the the end it came down to poorly 2720 km, probably the same size as UB313 now.

If we get more cases like Pluto, Triton, UB313, we'll find a 'shrinking law' from 'detection-diameter' to real diameter at the end... tongue.gif

Bye.
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Big_Gazza
post Feb 3 2006, 11:01 AM
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I have heard a rumour that one of the Mormons secret beliefs is that Heaven is not on another plane of existance but is on a hidden planet past the orbit of Pluto. Yeah, I know sounds kinda wierd, but who am I to judge rolleyes.gif

Anyway, with 2003 UB313 being discovered, what is the opinion of the good folks from Salt Lake City? At least they can have the certainty of knowing they have somewhere to go, though I don't think they need to pack sunglasses and tanning lotion. A nice warm jacket might be well advised.
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Bob Shaw
post Feb 3 2006, 01:24 PM
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QUOTE (Big_Gazza @ Feb 3 2006, 12:01 PM)
I have heard a rumour that one of the Mormons secret beliefs is that Heaven is not on another plane of existance but is on a hidden planet past the orbit of Pluto. Yeah, I know sounds kinda wierd, but who am I to judge  rolleyes.gif

Anyway, with 2003 UB313 being discovered, what is the opinion of the good folks from Salt Lake City?  At least they can have the certainty of knowing they have somewhere to go, though I don't think they need to pack sunglasses and tanning lotion. A nice warm jacket might be well advised.
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Do you think they'd like to sponsor some KBO missions, or would that take the fun out of things for them?

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AndyG
post Feb 3 2006, 03:35 PM
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QUOTE (Bob Shaw @ Feb 3 2006, 01:24 PM)
Do you think they'd like to sponsor some KBO missions, or would that take the fun out of things for them?
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Not at all. Though with their endless interest in genealogy, it's likely the instrument package would be ditched for thousands of names-on-DVDs... wink.gif

Andy G
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Rob Pinnegar
post Feb 3 2006, 07:18 PM
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QUOTE (TritonAntares @ Feb 2 2006, 06:27 AM)
As child I read in an old astronomy library book from the '50s - I think it was from Otto Struve - Triton's diameter should be ~6000 km.

If I recall right, that was because of Triton's unexpectedly high reflectivity.

The 6000-km figure was still around in the 1970s; I'm pretty sure it was included as an upper limit in Ludek Pesek's book "Solar System" which was from about 1979.
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