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Donald Rapp: no manned Mars trip before 2040 -- if then
Guest_BruceMoomaw_*
post Apr 26 2006, 04:48 AM
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http://www.thespacereview.com/article/602/1

He makes a very good, sour case where manned Mars expeditions are concerned (and also regarding the serious limitations on using lunar polar ice for ISPP on lunar missions). I do note, though, his howlers toward the end regarding unmanned astrobiological studies of Mars:

"Yet even within the JPL-led Mars Exploration Program (MEP), there are aspects that cause wonderment. The principal goal, motivation, and emphasis of the MEP is the search for life (past or present) on Mars. The adoption of this goal, with its innately very low probability of occurrence, introduces several anomalies in the logic of it all. Life requires liquid water, and liquid water can only exist well below the surface. Similarly there are no organics on Mars—at least not to one part in a billion. Yet we continue to hear about the MEP searching for organics and near-surface liquid water, and developing life-detection instruments."

The difficulty in finding surface liquid water on current-day Mars, of course, has absolutely nothing to do with the search for fossil Noachian life -- which has always been the main goal of the life search. And we only know that organics are missing on the surface, where oxidants and UV can destroy them -- we'll be looking for them mostly inside rocks. Moreover, judging from the recent conclusions of numerous researchers, even where present-day life is concerned we may not have to look that far underground (or inside rocks) to find both intermittent small amounts of liquid water and environments that can shield organics from destruction.

But, to repeat, he does a very good job of portraying just how staggeringly difficult any manned Mars expedition will be (even utilizing ISPP on Mars, which he thinks is entirely feasible).
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Guest_PhilCo126_*
post May 12 2006, 07:21 PM
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A manned mission to one of the moons of Mars would be a good starting point, as both Phobos & Deimos are suitable gateways to extensive Mars exploration (although an unmanned probe should find out how deep the regolith/dust layer is on those Moons wink.gif ... and make detailed maps to locate suitable landing areas).
A base on Phobos would provide links with unmanned spacecraft on the red planet and even down-to-the-surface sorties to points of intrest by a manned shuttle. This would be the best way to explore Mars as any long-distance surface trip would be too dangerous in way to difficult terrain ...
I've read Dr Zubrin's books on Mars exploration but I'm not optimistic to see a manned mission to Mars in my lifetime ( turning 40 this year ... sad.gif )
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