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Out of the noise level..., are we seeing what we want to see?
dvandorn
post May 17 2006, 10:47 AM
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One concern I've been worrying, like a bone, over the last several years, is the very tiny bits of data, barely above the noise level, upon which so many new "discoveries" seem to be based.

We're characterizing planetary systems based on the wiggles of stars -- when in some cases those wiggles are so far down near the level of chaotic noise vs. solid, unambiguous data that there could be other reasons (including sensor-induced noise) to account for them.

And as we build fairy castles out of data gleaned just barely above the noise level, we base further conclusions upon "understandings" that themselves are based on far too many single-point data points pulled from nearly-unreadable noise.

I'm not arguing that all of these discoveries are bogus. I'm just wondering how far we ought to go in trying to pull information out of noise. And I'm wondering just how much some of these detectors are designed to display what the PI wants to see -- not what's really out there.

-the other Doug


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“The trouble ain't that there is too many fools, but that the lightning ain't distributed right.” -Mark Twain
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climber
post May 18 2006, 11:21 AM
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Talking about star occultation, there's a post on Emily's blog : http://planetary.org/blog/article/00000579/
Want to be the fist one to see new Pluto's sattellites with your own eyes dvandorn?
Hurry up to New Zealand ***

*** Tasmania, there's the Tasmania's devil, Reunion's full of Mosquitos with Chicungunia, Australia's full of Australians (Astro0's fine anyway)


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ljk4-1
post May 18 2006, 11:55 AM
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QUOTE (climber @ May 18 2006, 07:21 AM) *
Talking about star occultation, there's a post on Emily's blog : http://planetary.org/blog/article/00000579/
Want to be the fist one to see new Pluto's sattellites with your own eyes dvandorn?
Hurry up to New Zealand ***

*** Tasmania, there's the Tasmania's devil, Reunion's full of Mosquitos with Chicungunia, Australia's full of Australians (Astro0's fine anyway)


I have already started a thread on this very topic:

http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.p...indpost&p=54453

As the Web site states, I hope the occultations will be useful to the New Horizons team,
as moon P2 will also occult the star, a first for such observations.


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"After having some business dealings with men, I am occasionally chagrined,
and feel as if I had done some wrong, and it is hard to forget the ugly circumstance.
I see that such intercourse long continued would make one thoroughly prosaic, hard,
and coarse. But the longest intercourse with Nature, though in her rudest moods, does
not thus harden and make coarse. A hard, sensible man whom we liken to a rock is
indeed much harder than a rock. From hard, coarse, insensible men with whom I have
no sympathy, I go to commune with the rocks, whose hearts are comparatively soft."

- Henry David Thoreau, November 15, 1853

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Bob Shaw
post May 18 2006, 05:04 PM
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I really don't see why there's any need to spend any more money on these grand planet-forming enquiries - we know perfectly well how, and why, the planets were formed - indeed, we have done since the late 1960s.

Bob Shaw
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