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Surprisingly successful (or failed) predictions?
elakdawalla
post Mar 12 2007, 07:02 PM
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In response to my recent plea for questions for Planetary Radio, I got this one, mentioning an event I hadn't been aware of.
QUOTE
Back in 1979, literally a week or so before Voyager I encountered Jupiter, a planetary scientist published a paper (in Science, I believe) postulating that tidal forces created by Jupiter's gravitational pull would trigger volcanic eruptions. It was a remarkably prescient article. There must be other examples of successful predictions of conditions on other planets or their moons. It would be fascinating to learn about them.
Here's the Science article he refers to.

Does anybody else know some other examples of spectacularly successful predictions that were actually published by researchers? (Lots of people speculate, but I think it's probably rarer to get this stuff past peer review.) And, for fairness, what about spectacularly unsuccessful predictions?

--Emily


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nprev
post Mar 15 2007, 01:41 AM
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Relativity (general & special) surely has to stand out as perhaps the most successful set of predictions/theorems in science, period. It's humbling to realize that almost a hundred years later we're still testing its bounds (GP-B, anyone? smile.gif ) and finding them solid...astonishing.


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Littlebit
post Mar 15 2007, 05:25 PM
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QUOTE (nprev @ Mar 14 2007, 07:41 PM) *
Relativity (general & special) surely has to stand out as perhaps the most successful set of predictions/theorems in science, period. It's humbling to realize that almost a hundred years later we're still testing its bounds (GP-B, anyone? smile.gif ) and finding them solid...astonishing.

There should be a partial release of Gravity probe B data in the April APS meeting.

http://einstein.stanford.edu/

The data reduction has proven much more challenging than expected, due unexpected Polhodes in the individual spheres and difficulty figuring out the probes exact position.

Reading between the lines in some of the presentation titles, there is a lot of unexpected variability:


In addition, on Saturday afternoon, two papers related to GP-B will be delivered in Session C12: Experimental Tests of Gravity.

C12.00004: " Lessons Learned from Gravity Probe B for STEP, LISA and other experiments" by GP-B team members Paul Worden and Sasha Buchman

C12.00005: "Proper Motion of the GP-B Guide Star" by the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Gp-B guide star tracking team: Irwin Shapiro, Daniel Lebach, Michael Ratner, Norbert Bartel, Ryan Ransom, Michael Bietenholz, Jerusha Lederman, and Jean-Francois Lestrade

On Sunday morning, April 15th, three members of the GP-B team have been invited to give special talks on three aspects of the GP-B program:

H7.00001: "The Gravity Probe B Science Instrument," by GP-B Co-Principal Investigator, John Turneaure

H7.00002: "The Development Challenges of Gravity Probe-B—an ongoing partnership between Physics and Engineering" by GP-B Co-Prinipal Investigator, Bradford Parkinson

H7.00003: "Gravity Probe B Data Analysis Challenges, Insights, and Results" by GP-B Co-Investigator and Chief Scientist, George (Mac) Keiser
Finally, on Sunday afternoon, April 15th, a large part of the GP-B team and associated scientists and engineers will present 22 poster sessions on a host of scientific and technology topics, as listed below.

Session L1: Poster Session II L1.00011: GRAVITATION

L1.00012: "Radio Imaging of the Gravity Probe B Guide Star IM Pegasi" by Michael Bietenholz, Ryan Ransom, Norbert Bartel, Daniel Lebach, Michael Ratner, Irwin Shapiro, Jean-Francois Lestrade

L1.00013: "The 'Core' of the Quasar 3C454.3 as the Extragalactic Reference for the Proper Motion of the Gravity Probe B Guide Star" by Norbert Bartel, Ryan Ransom, Michael Bietenholz, Jerusha Lederman, Daniel Lebach, Michael Ratner, Irwin Shapiro, Leonid Petrov

L1.00014: "Performance of the Gravity Probe B Inertial Reference Telescope" by Suwen Wang, John Goebel, John Lipa John Turneaure

L1.00015: "Gravity Probe B Timing System and Roll Phase Determination" by Jie Li , Jeffery Kolodziejczak

L1.00016: "The Gravity Probe B SQUID Readout Detector" by Barry Muhlfelder, Bruce Clarke, Gregory Gutt, James Lockhart, Ming Luo

L1.00017: "SQUID Control, Temperature Regulation, and Signal Processing Electronics for Gravity Probe B" by James Lockhart, Barry Muhlfelder, Jie Li, Bruce Clarke, Terry McGinnis, Peter Boretsky, Gregory Gutt

L1.00018: "Gravity Probe B Science Instrument Assembly (SIA)" by Saps Buchman, Barry Muhlfelder, John Turneaure

L1.00019: "Polhode Motion of the Gravity Probe-B Gyroscopes" by Michael Dolphin, Alex Silbergleit, Michael Salomon, Paul Worden, Daniel DeBra

L1.00020: "Evidence for Patch Effect Forces on the Gravity Probe B Gyroscopes" by Dale Gill, Saps Buchman

L1.00021: "Gravity Probe B Orbit Determination" by Paul Shestople , Huntington Small


Anybody know what "Patch Effect Forces Are?
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Guest_Edward Schmitz_*
post Mar 15 2007, 10:38 PM
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QUOTE (Littlebit @ Mar 15 2007, 10:25 AM) *
Anybody know what "Patch Effect Forces Are?


I found this in a Google search. Still not clear to me...

QUOTE
One of the possible noise sources for the space-based gravitational wave
detector LISA (the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna), associated with its
test masses, is that due to spatial variations in surface potential (or patch effect)
across the surfaces of the test mass and its housing.


Source

ed
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Posts in this topic
- elakdawalla   Surprisingly successful (or failed) predictions?   Mar 12 2007, 07:02 PM
- - JRehling   On the errant-prediction end, the first thing that...   Mar 12 2007, 08:12 PM
- - Mariner9   I thought everyone knew about the Io volcanoes bei...   Mar 12 2007, 09:07 PM
|- - stevesliva   QUOTE (Mariner9 @ Mar 12 2007, 05:07 PM) ...   Mar 12 2007, 09:28 PM
- - Mariner9   On the "boy were we wrong" side of thing...   Mar 12 2007, 09:14 PM
- - Littlebit   Hannes Alfven's predictions of both the solar ...   Mar 12 2007, 09:16 PM
- - ngunn   I believe that in 1955 the then British Astronomer...   Mar 12 2007, 09:55 PM
- - helvick   Jonathan Swift's prediction in "Voyage to...   Mar 12 2007, 10:20 PM
|- - JTN   QUOTE (helvick @ Mar 12 2007, 10:20 PM) J...   Mar 12 2007, 10:42 PM
- - Tom Tamlyn   I remember reading that there had been a predictio...   Mar 12 2007, 10:43 PM
- - Elias   The physical justification for the existence of a ...   Mar 12 2007, 10:51 PM
- - Bjorn Jonsson   Jupiter's ring was predicted from Pioneer part...   Mar 12 2007, 11:12 PM
- - jsheff   The existence of craters on Mars seemed to come as...   Mar 13 2007, 01:15 AM
- - tasp   JPL folks were cautioned to be on the look out for...   Mar 13 2007, 03:09 AM
- - dvandorn   Well, hmm -- not only a prediction, but "esta...   Mar 13 2007, 04:07 AM
- - edstrick   Then there's John Brunner's: "A Repor...   Mar 13 2007, 09:02 AM
- - Big_Gazza   And of course, there was the prediction that the V...   Mar 13 2007, 10:07 AM
- - David   I think that the "jungle-covered Venus" ...   Mar 13 2007, 11:43 AM
- - algorimancer   Not sure whether this counts as a failed predictio...   Mar 13 2007, 01:14 PM
|- - JRehling   Can we count: "JIMO will be a new type of sp...   Mar 13 2007, 09:30 PM
- - Edward Schmitz   One of the greatest leaps forward in the history o...   Mar 15 2007, 12:33 AM
- - nprev   Relativity (general & special) surely has to s...   Mar 15 2007, 01:41 AM
- - Littlebit   QUOTE (nprev @ Mar 14 2007, 07:41 PM) Rel...   Mar 15 2007, 05:25 PM
- - Edward Schmitz   QUOTE (Littlebit @ Mar 15 2007, 10:25 AM)...   Mar 15 2007, 10:38 PM


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