[X] My Assistant

[Stu]

I know we've had rather light-hearted discussions about this before, with most people agreeing that Oppy is likely to end her days inside or on the edge of Victoria Crater, simply because there's nothing else to investigate within reach, but has Steve S got it in his mind that Oppy will head off somewhere else after Victoria? This report could be read in a way that suggests that...

[djellison]

The WHOLE context would show the distance between VIctoria and there - with a scale bar, and perhaps the entire Opportunity traverse to date for reference.



Doug

[ustrax]

The WHOLE context would show the distance between VIctoria and there - with a scale bar, and perhaps the entire Opportunity traverse to date for reference.

You are mean...

Like this?...

Looks impossible...doesn't it?...
Paraphrasing our dear Nix tow years ago...
I have this vision of Ithaca; it must be one awesome crater up close! Let's hope all goes well, I want to have seen Ithaca!

[djellison]

You are mean...

A brutal realist - that's all.

I think it's fair to take the 22 month treck from Endurance to Victoria as a fair measure of progress for a journey of this sort traverse. There will be things that are better ( software and planning) - and things that are potentially worse ( wheels that may break, more broken steering actuators, bad terrain ). Taking Endurance to Victoria (including it's two halts for technical problems etc ) it's a commitment of about 5 years driving. There's not point doing the "100m a sol x Y days = X metres a week" maths - it doesn't work. It never really has apart from primary missions on easy driving ground.

It depends on what HiRISE tells us - it really really does.


If it's all like that (which is isn't ) - it's potentially possible.



If much of it is like this (which it could well be) - it's madness.

To be fair - the route straight SE from Victoria doesn't look THAT bad to begin with. A few hundred metres of brilliant driving. Then a few hundred metres of typical purgatory-like dunes ( which we have to cross at 45 degrees, not traverse down the length of ) - but then you hit a large region of larger dunes mixed with sparse areas of expose rock - much like the north rim of Erebus that we diverted around by a wide margin - but there's no where to divert to...it's all like that.

Look at it another way - It took 230 sols to get from the Western edge of Erebus to Beagle Crater. About 1.5km - over terrain that looks to me to be a fair sample of typical terrain from here onwards. They didn't hang around very much - they got stuck once - but they averaged less than 10m/sol. Another 20km could potentially be 2000 sols further - or just over 5 years.

I see nothing to suggest it could be done quicker than that - I really don't - and I don't think committing to that sort of expedition is a wise use of the vehicle scientifically - nor within the spirit of the world 'exploration'.

It is a very romantic notion - but one that should remain within our imaginations, unless HiRISE shows little short of a paved highway leading the way there. Don't get me wrong - I would love Opportunity to be able to get there - I just see little evidence that it would be able to.

Doug

[ustrax]

A brutal realist - that's all.

It is a very romantic notion - but one that should remain within our imaginations, unless HiRISE shows little short of a paved highway leading the way there. Don't get me wrong - I would love Opportunity to be able to get there - I just see little evidence that it would be able to.

Doug, altough it may not seem like that I can be quite realist too...and trust me I don't get you wrong, I completely understand your arguments and EVEN agree with them...
It is far and it is hard, but one thing for sure...it is THERE...

[djellison]

but one thing for sure...it is THERE...

So is Olympus Mons....when do we start driving? Sure - it's a long way but...it is THERE.

Who knows - maybe we can find somewhere to set a new speed record (>220m/sol) - but that route to the SE just looks NASTY.

Doug

[Guest_Edward Schmitz_*]

So is Olympus Mons....when do we start driving? Sure - it's a long way but...it is THERE.

Who knows - maybe we can find somewhere to set a new speed record (>220m/sol) - but that route to the SE just looks NASTY.

Doug

Doug, I really think you haven't given this idea a fair hearing. While it does seem outside the rover's capability, I feel its important to 'think outside the box'. Let the creative mind soar free for a while. I don't think there is a solution forth coming but if we listen to the various ideas, we'll know for sure.

[djellison]

Doug, I really think you haven't given this idea a fair hearing.

I don't think those advocating it have given HiRISE images a fair viewing. I would love Opportunity to be able to make that trip - but no ammount of poetry or positive thinking will actually make it any easier.

Like I've said again and again - with the data we have in front of us - it's a crazy idea. If we get more HiRISE images that show eagle-to-endurance like terrain for the middle 10km of the tripe....let's do it. If it's all like the part we can see - Erebus-to-Beagle with larger dunes...let's forget about it.

There are places were I see the drive direction images being 180 degrees of this
http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/all...OUP2399R2M1.JPG

Experience tells us that you don't go through that. The vehicle can't do it. You've got to go around it - and around it is going to be hundreds of metres across more dunes. Given the data we have now it looks like a 5 year trip that Opportunity could just about make from a navigation perspective. I don't think it's a wise way to spend 5 years when there is every chance of never getting there and having our mobility go up in smoke 6k from anything.

Doug