[X] My Assistant

[Exploitcorporati...]

Endeavour is safely in orbit.

[dvandorn]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the retirement of the Shuttle fleet in 2010 is not a simple, negotiable funding decision. It's the result of a very thorough review of the Shuttle system performed during (and, if I recall correctly, as a part of) the investigations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board.

As I recall it, the report stated that the Shuttle fleet could fly beyond 2010, but would require a complete overhaul and re-certification of each orbiter and of the launch pads and ground support equipment. A dollar figure was placed on this option, and it was astronomical. The finding was that it would be unsafe to continue to fly the Shuttle fleet after 2010 without such a thoroughgoing set of overhauls and re-certifications. (We're talking about checking and replacing pieces of the airframes, not just changing out cockpit elements or somesuch.)

The development of EELVs and a new generation of big, (relatively) dumb capsules was seen as a far more cost-effective means of extending the American manned space flight presence, and to begin to build an infrastructure that would allow America to fly to the Moon and Mars. So, the decision was simple -- go with Ares and retire the fleet.

From the beginning, it was obvious that the 2010 deadline was too soon to allow the development of Ares in time for a seamless handover to the new spaceflight architecture. NASA has been playing catch-up ever since.

Of course, if Endeavour burns up or has to be abandoned on-orbit, the entire point could be moot. I'm afraid that losing this crew will end the era of American manned space flight for good, and that abandoning the orbiter could have nearly as devastating an effect on the future of manned American missions.



-the other Doug