[X] My Assistant

[Mariner9]

In general I consider Ave Week to be a more reliable media source than CNN or FOX, but I see your point.

And the whole issue of launch price inflation is a scary one right now, with the cancellation of the Delta II line.

I don't recall where I read this, but apparently the fear is that the switch to ELVs will put the base cost of a launch at 120 million. I think Delta II was in the 70 million range. So right there, the rise of Discovery mission cap from 350 - 425 Million just got mostly swallowed by the launch vehicle.

I have read that NASA is trying to figure out a way to mitigate that, but I don't know that they've come up with anything practical.

[dvandorn]

Point taken, Doug. I was just struck by the phrase "it has similar performance" when it currently has nothing. You have to have a vehicle in order for it to be able to perform... *smile*...

But yes, if Falcon 9 does work as advertised, it could well step in and fill the void that will be left by the Delta II's retirement. I'm still convinced that we need launch vehicles of the Atlas V / Delta IV class that don't cost $100-million-plus. MSL *could* be scaled down to be able to be launchable on a Delta II, but it would then be more of a MER-with-an-RTG than a larger, more capable vehicle.

Recall that the MERs pushed the Delta II capability right to the limits, and wouldn't have been easily flyable on that vehicle had the orbital dynamics not been so favorable in 2003. And with a Delta II, New Horizons would be arriving at Pluto sometime in the 2030's -- or would be carrying a single engineering camera, if that.

It's difficult to design a capable spacecraft when you have a $350 million budget and your launch vehicle is going to cost you nearly half that... especially when you really need a more powerful launcher than is available for less than $100 million. If y'all want to keep having to play mass-budget games that result in, for example, killing off the Raman spectrometer on the MERs or similar trade-offs, then I guess it's OK to try and find a Delta II replacement. But I'd rather see reliable LVs of the Delta IV / Atlas V class which can be purchased and flown for $50 million or less.

-the other Doug

[djellison]

But I'd rather see reliable LVs of the Delta IV / Atlas V class which can be purchased and flown for $50 million or less.

http://spacex.com/falcon9_heavy.php
Same sort of performance as the full Delta IV/Atlas V range.

Not quite $50m a pop - but the discovery program library puts the price of 5-9 tons to LEO at $148m. Space X are hoping for $55m for the bottom of that range - $90m for up to 11 tons.

Doug