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Asteroid on track for possible Mars hit, 1 in 75 chance on January 30th
rogelio
post Dec 21 2007, 12:59 AM
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http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci...=la-home-center
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Guest_Oersted_*
post Dec 22 2007, 10:35 AM
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It would great to have a new impact crater carved, so we could send the Mars Science Laboratory to that! Let's hope that, if it hits Mars, it will impact somewhere that permits EDL for MSL.

As for Opportunity, a debris cloud in the higher atmosphere will be just one more thing to weather on her epic journey...
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SteveM
post Dec 22 2007, 02:32 PM
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JPL's Near Earth Object Program has a good report on 2007 WD5 with a lot of useful links and figures. It says that
QUOTE
The uncertainty region during the Mars encounter currently extends over a million kilometers (700,000 miles) along a very slender ellipsoid only 1200 km (700 miles) wide, but the ellipsoid does intersect Mars. The zone of potential impact on the surface of Mars is approximately 800 km wide, and sweeps across the Martian equator from southwest to northeast, crossing the equator at roughly 30 deg W longitude. The MER Opportunity rover is close to the southern edge of this possible impact zone but clearly outside it.

Especially interesting is an animation showing the intersection of the asteroid's uncertainty elipsoid with Mars. With future observations the uncertainty elipsoid will get smaller and may move.

Steve M



This post has been edited by SteveM: Dec 22 2007, 02:54 PM
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Posts in this topic
- rogelio   Asteroid on track for possible Mars hit   Dec 21 2007, 12:59 AM
- - stevesliva   No way! That's nuts.   Dec 21 2007, 01:17 AM
- - nprev   Oh, boy!!! If it hits, I wonder wher...   Dec 21 2007, 01:40 AM
|- - Tom Tamlyn   In the "funny coincidence" department, t...   Dec 21 2007, 01:56 AM
|- - SteveM   Checks on the current values in the JPL Horizon ep...   Dec 21 2007, 04:34 AM
|- - SteveM   Here's the observational ephemeris from the Op...   Dec 21 2007, 04:44 AM
|- - SteveM   Here's the latest Horizon observational epheme...   Dec 24 2007, 04:36 AM
- - slinted   The story has been updated with the correct date f...   Dec 21 2007, 01:53 AM
- - tasp   I think we need to generously apportion accolades ...   Dec 21 2007, 04:24 AM
- - djellison   Forget it with Spirit - no where near enough power...   Dec 21 2007, 09:05 AM
|- - SteveM   QUOTE (djellison @ Dec 21 2007, 04:05 AM)...   Dec 21 2007, 01:48 PM
|- - SteveM   The ephemeris is likely to change, as it's onl...   Dec 21 2007, 02:08 PM
- - PhilCo126   Anyway at those odds it won't probably happen ...   Dec 21 2007, 11:43 AM
- - nprev   Yeah, 1 in 75 isn't great...but here's hop...   Dec 21 2007, 12:07 PM
|- - ElkGroveDan   QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 21 2007, 04:07 AM) I...   Dec 21 2007, 03:56 PM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 21 2007, 07:07 AM) ......   Dec 21 2007, 03:57 PM
- - tty   100 meter diameter 5000 kilometers away. Any camer...   Dec 21 2007, 04:34 PM
|- - ustrax   SS at space.com: "“If an impact takes place,...   Dec 21 2007, 04:37 PM
|- - DDAVIS   "Squyres added that the rover team, of course...   Dec 22 2007, 08:18 PM
- - djellison   HiRISE - ROUGHLY - does something like distance in...   Dec 21 2007, 04:39 PM
- - Moon Saloon   .   Dec 21 2007, 10:02 PM
- - nprev   Ooo...neat idea! Couple of hurdles, though: 1...   Dec 21 2007, 10:17 PM
|- - Moon Saloon   .   Dec 22 2007, 12:46 AM
- - antipode   Ahhh for a couple [three please?] of seismometers ...   Dec 21 2007, 10:24 PM
|- - Moon Saloon   .   Dec 22 2007, 12:35 AM
- - MarsIsImportant   I think would need a dedicated seismometer on the ...   Dec 21 2007, 10:55 PM
|- - JRehling   Obviously, it's a long shot for it to hit Mars...   Dec 21 2007, 11:19 PM
- - nprev   I think that a nice, deep hit dead square on Merid...   Dec 21 2007, 11:55 PM
|- - dburt   QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 21 2007, 04:55 PM) I t...   Dec 22 2007, 02:00 AM
|- - ElkGroveDan   QUOTE (dburt @ Dec 21 2007, 06:00 PM) Of ...   Dec 22 2007, 03:50 AM
|- - dburt   QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ Dec 21 2007, 08:50 P...   Dec 24 2007, 09:32 PM
- - James Sorenson   QUOTE Obviously, it's a long shot for it to hi...   Dec 22 2007, 05:35 AM
- - James Sorenson   If the astroid does impact near atleased one rover...   Dec 22 2007, 08:02 AM
- - Oersted   It would great to have a new impact crater carved,...   Dec 22 2007, 10:35 AM
|- - SteveM   JPL's Near Earth Object Program has a good rep...   Dec 22 2007, 02:32 PM
- - Stu   Well, we can dream, eh..?   Dec 22 2007, 10:51 PM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (Stu @ Dec 22 2007, 11:51 PM) Well,...   Dec 22 2007, 11:56 PM
- - ngunn   I like it!   Dec 22 2007, 11:17 PM
- - nprev   Awesome thought; awesome image, Stu! Thanks...   Dec 22 2007, 11:38 PM
- - algorimancer   It had not occurred to me before, but it seems lik...   Dec 23 2007, 12:00 AM
- - djellison   The resolution and sensitivity of the IMU's is...   Dec 23 2007, 12:12 AM
|- - algorimancer   My recollection is that running the IMU burns a lo...   Dec 23 2007, 01:04 AM
- - nprev   Are they ring-laser gyro IMUs, or are they mechani...   Dec 23 2007, 02:05 AM
|- - Del Palmer   QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 23 2007, 02:05 AM) Are...   Dec 23 2007, 07:24 AM
|- - nprev   QUOTE (Del Palmer @ Dec 22 2007, 11:24 PM...   Dec 24 2007, 01:06 AM
- - Juramike   Could you use a Pancam image of a bright star at n...   Dec 23 2007, 04:29 AM
- - dvandorn   You know... don't get me wrong, guys, but, um....   Dec 23 2007, 08:06 AM
- - Stu   Aw, other Doug, it's all part of the fun! ...   Dec 23 2007, 08:55 AM
- - slinted   3 new (old) observations from Apache Point-Sloan D...   Dec 23 2007, 03:29 PM
|- - ugordan   Perhaps counterintuitively, these new observations...   Dec 23 2007, 03:36 PM
- - MarsIsImportant   The cone of uncertainty from a couple of days ago ...   Dec 23 2007, 05:05 PM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (MarsIsImportant @ Dec 23 2007, 06...   Dec 23 2007, 05:50 PM
- - MarsIsImportant   Mars has gravity. And the current best guess pat...   Dec 23 2007, 06:30 PM
- - Stu   Hey, look on the bright side... if it misses Mars ...   Dec 23 2007, 06:32 PM
|- - ElkGroveDan   QUOTE (Stu @ Dec 23 2007, 10:32 AM) Hey, ...   Dec 23 2007, 08:35 PM
- - MarsIsImportant   Well, I guess that is one way we could finally ge...   Dec 23 2007, 09:35 PM
- - Doc   There is no reason not to try. Remember, these thi...   Dec 24 2007, 09:41 AM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (Doc @ Dec 24 2007, 09:41 AM) an en...   Dec 24 2007, 10:28 AM
- - Doc   Assuming that the asteroid hits the planet not too...   Dec 24 2007, 10:57 AM
|- - Stu   Welcome to UMSF by the way Doc! I know wha...   Dec 24 2007, 11:07 AM
- - Stu   For all those people wanting a "Roving Mars...   Dec 24 2007, 12:47 PM
|- - scalbers   QUOTE (Stu @ Dec 24 2007, 12:47 PM) Serio...   Dec 25 2007, 04:55 PM
- - djellison   It'll get more and more accurate as time goes ...   Dec 24 2007, 12:54 PM
- - Stu   My money's on a miss... it would be just too g...   Dec 24 2007, 01:11 PM
|- - nprev   QUOTE (Stu @ Dec 24 2007, 05:11 AM) Would...   Dec 24 2007, 02:17 PM
- - PhilCo126   Some 'real' images http://www.lpl.arizona...   Dec 24 2007, 03:54 PM
- - nprev   Thanks, Phil. Gotta say that these NEO searches r...   Dec 24 2007, 04:06 PM
- - rogelio   If this asteroid did impact Mars on its sunward si...   Dec 24 2007, 08:33 PM
- - ugordan   QUOTE (dburt @ Dec 24 2007, 10:32 PM) One...   Dec 24 2007, 09:58 PM
|- - dburt   QUOTE (ugordan @ Dec 24 2007, 02:58 PM) ....   Dec 26 2007, 03:13 AM
- - Stu   My latest entry for the "I know it would look...   Dec 25 2007, 06:42 AM
- - MarsIsImportant   Honestly, I don't think the stem of the mushro...   Dec 25 2007, 06:58 AM
|- - Stu   QUOTE (MarsIsImportant @ Dec 25 2007, 06...   Dec 25 2007, 02:29 PM
- - PhilCo126   Indeed, the impact would be a 'minor' one....   Dec 25 2007, 09:51 AM
- - nprev   One thing puzzles me. JPL is saying that if it doe...   Dec 25 2007, 03:17 PM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 25 2007, 04:17 PM) One...   Dec 25 2007, 03:35 PM
- - nprev   I'm puzzled as well, Gordan; here's a quot...   Dec 25 2007, 04:27 PM
|- - JRehling   Well, if the time of the asteroid breaking the pla...   Dec 26 2007, 11:09 PM
- - karolp   I guess even if it missed, that would still be a g...   Dec 26 2007, 10:33 PM
- - PDP8E   The Near Earth Object Program at http://neo.jpl....   Dec 27 2007, 06:18 PM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (PDP8E @ Dec 27 2007, 07:18 PM) her...   Dec 27 2007, 07:22 PM
- - Stu   If I'm reading Emily's latest blog entry c...   Dec 28 2007, 06:31 PM
|- - SteveM   QUOTE (Stu @ Dec 28 2007, 01:31 PM) If I...   Dec 28 2007, 08:22 PM
- - nprev   "Possibly" is the keyword here, Stu; the...   Dec 28 2007, 07:32 PM
- - SteveM   JPL has now published the new odds on Mars impact...   Dec 28 2007, 09:15 PM
- - Shaka   I hope the MER are old enough to remember how to ...   Dec 28 2007, 09:26 PM
|- - ugordan   I don't think you have to worry about that jus...   Dec 28 2007, 09:29 PM
|- - Stu   QUOTE (ugordan @ Dec 28 2007, 09:29 PM) h...   Dec 28 2007, 10:10 PM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (Stu @ Dec 28 2007, 11:10 PM) Even ...   Dec 28 2007, 10:22 PM
|- - Juramike   QUOTE (Stu @ Dec 28 2007, 05:10 PM) Even ...   Dec 29 2007, 12:14 AM
|- - Stu   QUOTE (Juramike @ Dec 29 2007, 12:14 AM) ...   Dec 29 2007, 08:12 AM
- - vk3ukf   Just checked my sources on the asteroid (Ron Baalk...   Dec 29 2007, 03:34 AM
- - nprev   QUOTE (ugordan @ Dec 28 2007, 02:22 PM) T...   Dec 29 2007, 05:20 AM
- - dvandorn   Remember, slump effects can be enhanced by seismic...   Dec 29 2007, 06:40 AM
- - Decepticon   http://www.livescience.com/blogs/author/leonarddav...   Dec 29 2007, 01:55 PM
- - Shaka   "2:55 am PST" Dam' I'll have...   Dec 29 2007, 08:21 PM
|- - SFJCody   An asteroid hit would be even better if something ...   Dec 29 2007, 09:18 PM
|- - ElkGroveDan   QUOTE (Shaka @ Dec 29 2007, 12:21 PM) ...   Dec 30 2007, 03:04 AM
- - nprev   Guys...dunno if I'd bother. How would we get r...   Dec 30 2007, 05:24 AM
- - stewjack   QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 30 2007, 12:24 AM) Dou...   Dec 30 2007, 03:26 PM
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