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Asteroid on track for possible Mars hit, 1 in 75 chance on January 30th |
 Jan 9 2008, 03:44 PM
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#136
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Member  Group: Members Posts: 544 Joined: 17-November 05 From: Oklahoma Member No.: 557  |
Well, a whole bunch of observations came in yesterday from three different sources.
I ain't gonna say it. Someone else can. I'm not sure if the messenger gets shot around here sometimes. |
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Jan 9 2008, 03:59 PM
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#137
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 Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8789 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
QUOTE (Holder of the Two Leashes @ Jan 9 2008, 07:44 AM)  Well, a whole bunch of observations came in yesterday from three different sources. I ain't gonna say it. Someone else can. I'm not sure if the messenger gets shot around here sometimes. Think it's pretty much an expectation at this point. Not good, from what I gather...still, everyone here knew damn good & well that the odds were very much against an impact. -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Jan 9 2008, 04:02 PM
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#138
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Member Group: Members Posts: 544 Joined: 17-November 05 From: Oklahoma Member No.: 557 |
OK, I'll spell it out.
M... i... s... s. (Ducks and runs for cover). |
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Jan 9 2008, 04:21 PM
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#139
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 Senior Member Group: Admin Posts: 4763 Joined: 15-March 05 From: Glendale, AZ Member No.: 197 |
It's going to hit Mississippi?
-------------------- If Occam had heard my theory, things would be very different now.
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Jan 9 2008, 04:36 PM
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#140
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Member Group: Members Posts: 544 Joined: 17-November 05 From: Oklahoma Member No.: 557 |
Maybe, or it might hit Oklahoma (hence the ducking and running for cover). This is both a Mars and Earth crosser. After this major deflection, no telling where it might eventually end up.
Given the historic importance of this rock, I'm hoping somebody will keep tracking it so it doesn't end up lost. |
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Jan 10 2008, 10:34 AM
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#141
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 Member Group: Members Posts: 276 Joined: 11-December 07 From: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Member No.: 3978 |
QUOTE (Holder of the Two Leashes @ Jan 9 2008, 07:02 PM) M... i... s... s. I don't think I'm ever going to get over this.......I think I need to *whack* something, then I'll feel better! -------------------- |
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Jan 10 2008, 03:12 PM
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#142
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Member Group: Members Posts: 544 Joined: 17-November 05 From: Oklahoma Member No.: 557 |
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Jan 10 2008, 03:26 PM
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#143
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 Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 3652 Joined: 1-October 05 From: Croatia Member No.: 523 |
QUOTE (Holder of the Two Leashes @ Jan 10 2008, 04:12 PM) 1 in 10,000 <Dumb_And_Dumber>So you're saying there's a chance???</Dumb_And_Dumber> -------------------- |
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Jan 10 2008, 03:40 PM
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#144
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8789 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Ah...better luck next time, still lots of rocks out there. C'est la vie.
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Jan 10 2008, 06:09 PM
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#145
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 Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 40 Joined: 24-January 06 From: USA Member No.: 659 |
Very disappointing. I was looking forward to an impact.
The odds drastically changed within 24 hours' time; early yesterday it was still a 1:40 chance and now it's 1:10,000. ::shrugs:: |
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Jan 10 2008, 07:30 PM
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#146
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Senior Member Group: Admin Posts: 4763 Joined: 15-March 05 From: Glendale, AZ Member No.: 197 |
According to the article on Space.com the range of distances it will pass Mars is 4,000km - 26,000 km.
Meanwhile Phobos typically is about 9,400 km on its semi-major axis and Deimos is about 23,000 km. I suppose the inclinations are all wrong and such. So can someone tell me when we can rule them out, if not immediately? -------------------- If Occam had heard my theory, things would be very different now.
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Jan 11 2008, 01:42 AM
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#147
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8789 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
<pontification mode> I'd say the odds are in the billions or more, Dan. Phobos & Deimos are extremely small targets compared to Mars itself, and also have negligible gravitational fields; just ain't gonna happen, even if the orbital plane alignments were right, and the projected ground track over Mars makes me think that they're not; IIRC, both moons are in equatorial orbits. </pontification mode>
<honest mode!> Not trying to shoot you down at all, dude. I've noticed that 99% of what I predict is completely wrong, so thought I'd capitalize on this inverse luck...hit something, dammit!  </honest mode>
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Jan 11 2008, 02:27 AM
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#148
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Senior Member Group: Admin Posts: 4763 Joined: 15-March 05 From: Glendale, AZ Member No.: 197 |
Agreed about the long odds, but obviously they have been impacted previously. I was just curious if anyone could rule out this body entirely.
-------------------- If Occam had heard my theory, things would be very different now.
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Jan 11 2008, 05:04 AM
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#149
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 Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2530 Joined: 20-April 05 Member No.: 321 |
QUOTE (nprev @ Jan 10 2008, 05:42 PM) <honest mode!> Not trying to shoot you down at all, dude. I've noticed that 99% of what I predict is completely wrong, so thought I'd capitalize on this inverse luck...hit something, dammit! </honest mode>There goes one of our orbiters. |
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Jan 11 2008, 06:04 AM
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#150
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 Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 3419 Joined: 9-February 04 From: Minneapolis, MN, USA Member No.: 15 |
OK, John -- now you've done it. Your comment made the following pop into my head:
Once there was a silly old rock, Thought that it would clean Mars' clock. But with a shove and a pull, that rock's stock Says it won't go ker-plock! But it has... High hopes! It has... High hopes! It has... High, flying by Deimos in the sky Hopes! So any time you're feeling low, Feel like letting go, Just remember that rock! Ooops, there goes A megaton of Mars shock!  -the other Doug -------------------- “The trouble ain't that there is too many fools, but that the lightning ain't distributed right.” -Mark Twain
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