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Asteroid on track for possible Mars hit, 1 in 75 chance on January 30th
tty
post Dec 21 2007, 04:34 PM
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100 meter diameter 5000 kilometers away. Any camera gurus here that can convert that into pixels for the various cameras available out Mars way?
HiRise would certainly be able to take a detailed image but unfortunately the pointing problems are probably prohibitive, even though there will certainly be a rush of new observations to improve the ephemeris.
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ustrax
post Dec 21 2007, 04:37 PM
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SS at space.com:

"“If an impact takes place, the most likely thing for us to observe would be dust that has been lofted into the atmosphere by the impact event and then carried over the rover sites by wind,” Squyres said. “So if there is an impact, we’ll increase our monitoring of dust in the atmosphere to see if we can observe any effects.”

"Squyres added that the rover team, of course, would try to image the sky at the predicted time of impact to see if anything can be seen, “but that’s got to be considered a very improbable long shot.”


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djellison
post Dec 21 2007, 04:39 PM
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HiRISE - ROUGHLY - does something like distance in km / 10 = cm/pixel (i.e. 250km=25cm - 300km=30cm) - so 5000km = 5m/pixel - 20 pixels across.

CTX is 20 x that, so 100m/pixel - one pixel - and very roughly speaking, the same for THEMIS and HRSC.

Doug
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Moon Saloon
post Dec 21 2007, 10:02 PM
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nprev
post Dec 21 2007, 10:17 PM
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Ooo...neat idea! Couple of hurdles, though:

1. Have to know the impact time quite precisely (and right now, odds are that it ain't even gonna hit).

2. Need to use the DTE link for the entire window to both catch the hit & establish a baseline to derive variations.

3. The carrier freq won't be affected by the impact, only (potentially) the antenna pointing accuracy, which would presumably experience variations in received dBm's from vibration & consequent small pointing errors. Don't know if these would be significant enough to notice, unless it hits very close to one of the MERs.

While writing this, had another idea: Do the MERs have load cells or any other method of monitoring wheel weight loads or static axial torsion? If so, and if the impact generates a detectable seismic event, then variations in this telemetry might provide the same sort of data.


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antipode
post Dec 21 2007, 10:24 PM
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Ahhh for a couple [three please?] of seismometers on the ground! mars.gif

I still think its a damn shame that the Viking [2?] instrument didn't uncage...

P
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MarsIsImportant
post Dec 21 2007, 10:55 PM
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I think would need a dedicated seismometer on the rover to get any useful scientific data. Sure, you might be able to come up with some method to detected some sort of shake, rattle and roll. But really...how useful would such a detection be? Wouldn't we need something a bit more sensitive? Don't you need something to compare data with here on Earth to make any sense of it? If such a makeshift method would work, why hasn't the MER team created one already to detect possible Marsquakes?

I'm skeptical. But I hope you guys can prove my skeptism unfounded. I love the discussion about the possibility! I guess it is OK to dream about it.
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JRehling
post Dec 21 2007, 11:19 PM
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Obviously, it's a long shot for it to hit Mars at all, but if it does, the extra-exciting longshot would be that one of the rovers would be inside the debris apron, and we could identify the new baubles by comparing the image to the day before. Then, in good time, drive over and examine them.

Somebody ask Santa nicely for this!
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nprev
post Dec 21 2007, 11:55 PM
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I think that a nice, deep hit dead square on Meridiani is on all our Christmas lists, a few kilometers from Oppy (who would, in this perfect scenario, be well sheltered from any ill effects inside Victoria...)


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Moon Saloon
post Dec 22 2007, 12:35 AM
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Moon Saloon
post Dec 22 2007, 12:46 AM
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dburt
post Dec 22 2007, 02:00 AM
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QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 21 2007, 04:55 PM) *
I think that a nice, deep hit dead square on Meridiani is on all our Christmas lists, a few kilometers from Oppy (who would, in this perfect scenario, be well sheltered from any ill effects inside Victoria...)

Careful what you wish for... A few kilometers might not be enough to protect Oppy, even in Victoria. If you look at images (MOC and HiRISE) of very recent Mars impact craters detected from orbit, visible scouring effects extend for at least 10 crater diameters, and ground-hugging impact surge clouds composed mainly of dust could therefore reach at least that far, bowling Oppy over, or at the very least, coating its solar cells with dust and sand. Surge deposit accumulations should be thicker than usual inside a crater, although the surge cloud might have enough internal energy to climb the far side and keep going (original dip - deposition as inclined beds - is common in surge deposits, such as those at Home Plate, that may have overridden an old impact crater or other small bowl shaped depression).

But what I wouldn't give for some nice pancam and orbital images of the dust storm-like impact surge cloud rapidly advancing across Meridiani Planum towards Oppy! Of course, that still wouldn't convince the doubters... smile.gif

-- HDP Don
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ElkGroveDan
post Dec 22 2007, 03:50 AM
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QUOTE (dburt @ Dec 21 2007, 06:00 PM) *
Of course, that still wouldn't convince the doubters... smile.gif

Not until we witnessed freshly created hematite spheres raining from your impact surge cloud. blink.gif


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James Sorenson
post Dec 22 2007, 05:35 AM
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QUOTE
Obviously, it's a long shot for it to hit Mars at all, but if it does, the extra-exciting longshot would be that one of the rovers would be inside the debris apron, and we could identify the new baubles by comparing the image to the day before. Then, in good time, drive over and examine them.

Somebody ask Santa nicely for this!


I dont think I would feel comfortable for Oppy or Spirit to be that close to ground zero sad.gif . But on the other hand, it would certinly look cool on pancam, if it survives stuff falling from the sky smile.gif .
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James Sorenson
post Dec 22 2007, 08:02 AM
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If the astroid does impact near atleased one rover, I prefer it to be Spirit. Speeking of which, in the extreamly thin martian atmosphere, and an impactor of this size, and the speed at which the astroid is traveling, how powerfull would the over pressures be at impact?. With a fairly moderate or even gentle blast wave, Im positive that would clear spirit's dusty solar panels rolleyes.gif .
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