[X] My Assistant

[vk3ukf]

Just checked my sources on the asteroid (Ron Baalke).
The chances of the asteroid impacting Mars have increased from 1 in 75 to 1 in 25.

[nprev]

To me the most exciting prospects would be actually recording the moment of impact...

Agreed, even if it's beyond visual range of either of the MERs. I'm convinced that the rover IMUs are sensitive enough to detect the impact shock. The beauty here is that even if they're not, that would set some constraints on Martian crustal properties based on the distance from the rovers, the IMU performance characteristics, and the calculated impact energy...we'd learn something about Mars' crust either way.

Re elevated expectations: If it happens, aren't we lucky... ...if not, no biggie. I'm actually excited by the fact that we've achieved the ability to even detect such potential events on Mars!

[dvandorn]

Remember, slump effects can be enhanced by seismic shocks. Mass wasting downslope is often driven by seismic activity.

So, one way to observe seismic events is to look at how much change we end up seeing in materials on slopes.

Seems to me Opportunity and Spirit are both sitting on slopes right now...

-the other Doug

[Stu]

I totally beg to differ.

We'd learn volumes about how dust clouds disperse and affect the atmospheric layers during impact events. Sure, we've got theoretical models, but backing them up with observations would be really useful. Heck, even watching the dust cloud drift around would give us even more information about meteorology and local wind fields on Mars.

I see what you mean. To be honest, I wasn't talking (or even thinking) about those things you refer to, I was thinking more geologically - newly exposed rock, etc. I see your point.

Still wouldn't risk a fairly healthy, still a'roving rover for a possible chance to see a drifting dust cloud tho

[Decepticon]

http://www.livescience.com/blogs/author/leonarddavid

[Shaka]

"2:55 am PST"
Dam' I'll have to stay awake 'til 1:00 in the morning.

[SFJCody]

An asteroid hit would be even better if something like METNET was in place.

[ElkGroveDan]

"2:55 am PST"
Dam' I'll have to stay awake 'til 1:00 in the morning.

You think that's bad, I just did the complex time-zone conversion calculations for PST-to-Hawaii and back again (subtract 22 hours and add 1 day) . So it looks like I'll have to stay awake until 2:55 am PST if my figures are correct.

[nprev]

Guys...dunno if I'd bother. How would we get real-time coverage of the (probably non-)event? Doubt that if it hits we'd even know about it until several hours--if not a full day or more--later. Stay in the sack, get your Zzzs!

[stewjack]

Doubt that if it hits we'd even know about it until several hours--if not a full day or more--later.

The following segment of Science Friday, a National Public Radio show, gives a good summary of everything mention in this thread, and also mention how faint the object is. They hope to get a "big" telescope, like one on Mauna Kea, to track it.

8 min : mp3
file size: 4 MB
Asteroid May Cross Path of Red Planet
NASA astronomers are monitoring a 164-foot wide asteroid that is headed in the direction of Mars at about 28,000 miles per hour. Scientists say that the space rock has a 1-in-25 chance of colliding with the Red Planet.

Guest: Donald Yeomans
Manager, Near Earth Object Program
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Pasadena, California

Alternate link for mp3 plus rm and wm streaming.
http://www.sciencefriday.com/program/archives/200712281

Jack

[CAP-Team]

What are the chances of the asteroid being "bound" to impact Mars, if the asteroid won't hit now, but it's orbit being adapted so a future impact is unavoidable?

[slinted]

What are the chances of the asteroid being "bound" to impact Mars, if the asteroid won't hit now, but it's orbit being adapted so a future impact is unavoidable?

I know this is a dodge, since someone with more knowledge on orbital mechanics could give a vague range of percentages, but I'd say that it's not even worth calculating until after the 30th. The effect of Mars' gravity on the future trajectory will depend on how close this approach actually turns out to be. These are the times when the uncertainties show high nonlinear behavior, as a tiny difference in this Mars close approach will make a huge difference down the road.

[tasp]

Maybe we get an atmospheric graze like the Jackson Lake bolide back in the seventies.

{is it still a bolide if it happens at Mars ?? I forget so many things these days . . . }

[Doc]

Does any one have a clue how much of a boom can this thing inflict?
(if it were to hit Mars )

[helvick]

Doc - a good place to go to get an idea of how big a bang an impactor can cause is H Jay Melosh and Ross A. Beyer's Crater size calculator at LPL.When you select appropriate numbers for this object (50m diameter composed of loose rock, asteroid impact at mars hitting a porous rock surface) you get somewhere between a 700m and 1.8 km diameter crater. The impact energy released is on the order of 1.2 MegaTons.