[X] My Assistant

[stevesliva]

Anyway, what this feels like to me is that Alan made a hard call, Squyres took it to the public, and Griffin didn't back Alan up. So Alan did the honorable thing and quit. I don't like to think that -- Squyres is someone I admire too -- but that's what it looks like to me.

I guess I really don't know enough one way or the other whether the rovers are really past their "sell-by" dates. I do know, though, that if I heard that from Alan Stern, I'd believe it completely.

I'd guess that it's more shades of grey. Does it really take so large a staff to run 0.5 nonstationary rovers? Shouldn't there be some increasing efficiencies as things get more mature and the capabilities get smaller? Does a cut really mean that they can't operate Spirit? Or does it mean they have to operate more efficiently (fewer people)?

[brellis]

Bottom line - they're trying to do a lot with not enough money.

[djellison]

Then someone affected went public spinning it as "shutting down a rover" when in fact the plan was far less draconian than that.

No - they really were getting ready to put a full hibernation plan into place, which would have been sent up next week. I have no doubt about that. People were figuring out how to do MER part time and work on something else as well to help with the money to reliable keep things going.

And lest we forget, there was an impact on Odyssey as well, something the public really barely know about.

I think people are trying to second guess who thought what and when - probably in the wrong thread. What the hell, I'll have a go as well.

What I do know is that Monday was the Mars program going to MER and saying 'you're only going to get $X from now, what can you do' - and the answer had to be going to full hibernation on Spirit and loosing a lot of team which would have been near impossible to rebuild. The plan was real. The decision to cut funding for Odyssey and MER would have had to occur above Odyssey and MER. The resulting impact was perhaps not appreciated until the MER team meeting (and I presume a matching Odyssey meeting that's gone less well documented). You can be sure as hell that Squyres et.al. tried to think of any and every way to keep operating two rovers - but there is a financial floor beyond which you simply can't keep the people on board to operated both rovers. Perhaps above MER they thought "Yeah - MER can handle a few million less" without realizing that after 4 years, they're operating about as efficiently as is possible. It'd be interesting to compared the per-week cost of operating the first 90 sols (not the $800m/180sols - but the chunk of that $800m that was actual operating costs during that 90 sols) and compare it to today. That critical mass of engineering and scientists you need to operate them would be just about impossible to rebuild ( and utterly impossible if an $8m cut for '09 were carried thru ). If out take out the dust storm - last year could have been suprisingly productive for Spirit - home plate finished, and south to the interesting features there. She was back to 800 Whrs can you believe - and then the dust storm kind of ruined that - but hey - we learnt about dust-storms instead. If she can survive the next winter, I think it reasonable to suggest that 800 Whrs and an active summer could happen again - and, we'll have survived three Martian winters - a useful scientific baseline for future long term exploration.

This is why, in the other thread, I question the sensibility of a Mars 'program'. MSL is the problem here, for whatever reason. The challenge was put to the Mars program to find further MSL funding itself - and it's decision was to go to Odyssey and MER and say 'you can't have the normal extended funding anymore' . What Odyssey and MER came back with in response to that probably surprised a lot of people - but they were not doing it for a reaction, they were doing it because that's all they could do with the cut they were being presented with. I see MER and Odyssey getting hit as no more appropriate than say, hitting Aqua, Terra and Aura to be honest.

Perhaps Alan was expecting the Mars program to sort this out for themselves, for JPL to find cash from elsewhere to top up the MSL budget without impacting other missions. When they didn't or couldn't do that, I think Alan was probably prepared to let them hang out to dry for a while, see if they capitulated internally and found the cash somehow. With the threat of too many 'NASA kills Mars rovers' headlines, I think that the money would have been found from inside somehow. Griffin instead capitulated over him, and thus rendered ineffective Alan's commendable efforts in trying to get some honesty and accountability within the mission design and ATLO process. With that precedent set, then missions of the future would try to pull the same thing, and thus Alan essentially becomes a Sherif with a Colt that his boss swopped out half the rounds for blanks. It's untenable.

Two things are wrong in that picture. The treatment of all Mars missions as one big accounting code, and the over runs of MSL. The MSL overruns are massive. HQ moved the goal posts on them (pre-Stern), inappropriately, requiring further engineering work which was never accounted for at the beginning. There may have been further MSL budget growth for other reasons, but at least part of it was HQ instigated.

But why a Mars 'program'? Why not an inner-planets program? LRO goes over so Messenger gets cut? Outer planets : Juno goes over, so the Cassini extension gets cut in half. I don't think that's the right way of doing things. But I don't know what the right way is. I don't think anyone does. Alan was having a damn good try, but if you're not left to get on with your job in the best way you think, then there's nothing to be done but walk out the door.

Doug

[Guest_PhilCo126_*]

O.K. Doug... this even made the news in Belgium!
http://www.hln.be/static/FOTO/pe/6/7/14/large_350309.jpg

[DrShank]

Belgium eh? The folks at ESA are very interested in how things are run over here, given the level of cooperative activities. The OSS Flagship selection (that ESA may cooperate in) is one key decision that will now be made by someone else.
alan was making some tough decisions and seemed to be making a lot of progress. Like Ralph reminded us,
No good dead goes unpunished. I wonder sometimes if he was trying to make a point by resigning and it
was unexpectedly accepted. That would be bad! If Griffin caved on MER as Doug suggests above that would be ungood, but might suggest a lack of communication in this matter (at least) at the top levels on the ultimate goals. Mistakes get made. Resignation is final. I dont know. i think it will probably take a while to completely unravel the layers of this affair.
i do agree with Alan that Mike G does seem to be one of the best adminstrators that NASA has seen, at least since Webb.

p

[Jim from NSF.com]

i do agree with Alan that Mike G does seem to be one of the best adminstrators that NASA has seen, at least since Webb.

History has shown the exact opposite. Mike G has gutted space science and hamstrung the manned program with an unworkable expensive architecture that will be NASA's downfall if not changed

[DrShank]

History has shown the exact opposite. Mike G has gutted space science and hamstrung the manned program with an unworkable expensive architecture that will be NASA's downfall if not changed

then someone is lying to us. We have more missions operating than ever, and R&A has held the line against inflation and other incroachments. doesnt seem gutted to me. what do you refer to, specifically?
the big hit of course is STS and ISS on the manned side, which eat a lot, as well as MSL....

[Norm Hartnett]

The "local" paper gave one paragraph to the landing of the Shuttle and three half columns and a photo to the Rover debacle. I suspect that the science community is going to rue the day Dr. Stern left. This is one of the things both Dr. Stern and Dr. Griffin have railed against, where one segment of NASA goes to "their" politicians and the public to force NASA's decisions. I was more than a little surprised that HQ did not support Dr. Stern. This decision, to cut funding to MER, must have been one of several decisions that have not sat well within NASA HQ. JPL and NASA now have an interesting problem, where is that $200m going to come from? With the failure to back Dr. Stern, Dr. Weiler is faced with the knowledge that every cut he proposes is going to cause a similar reaction. Political game playing has just gotten a green light and the science community is going to pay a heavy price.

[Greg Hullender]

Perhaps Dr. Weiler could benefit from Machiavelli's advice to "commit all your unkindnesses at once." If you have to make cuts in order to balance the budget, make them across dozens of projects at the same time. Then, even if the impacted groups try to go to the public or to Congress, they have to compete with each other. Ronald Reagan used this tactic with some success when he changed the US tax code (he removed dozens of tax deductions at the same time), so it certainly CAN work with the US Congress.

--Greg

[Norm Hartnett]

NASAWatch says SMD Chief Scientist John Mather is leaving NASA HQ. More spinoff from this debacle?

[climber]

If you remember how nervous Dr Weiler was on Spirit landing, I'd bet we'll see the same man again for Phoenix landing. I just cannot imagine him cutting Mer budget.

[ugordan]

I just cannot imagine him cutting Mer budget.

You're making it sound like Alan's the big bad guy here.

[climber]

You're making it sound like Alan's the big bad guy here.

I was talking of the emotional part of him I can "see" !

[tedstryk]

Another possibility is that Stern was pressured to take the action he did with regard to MER and Odyssey from higher up and then was hung out to dry when they realized the media was picking up the story.

[vjkane]

Science magazine just published their article on why Stern quit. Since this journal is not generally available, I'll quote a couple of key paragrahs:

Sources close to NASA headquarters say that Griffin feels Stern, a planetary scientist who came to Washington, D.C., 1 year ago, has repeatedly failed to tell him about major decisions and that the plan to shut down one of the rovers--which outraged congressional supporters and made headlines around the country--was the last straw. Other managers, however, say that Stern believes Griffin has tied his managerial hands by blocking efforts to cut or delay politically sensitive projects.

NASA officials say Griffin favors cutting less popular parts of the budget, including funding for science grants, but that Stern has resisted that approach. "Mike didn't like Alan's solutions," explains one NASA official. "Mike told him how to fix it. Alan didn't like the solution and resigned."