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Gut feeling... |
 May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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#1
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 Member  Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12  |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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May 23 2008, 02:29 PM
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#2
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 Senior Member Group: Moderator Posts: 2262 Joined: 9-February 04 From: Melbourne - Oz Member No.: 16 |
Me too, I've already got that nervous-butterfly's-in-stomach feeling., I'm going to be wreck come Sunday night!
Made the decision today to take Tuesday and Wednesday off work next week, in addition to the Bank Holiday Monday, to recover and work full time on Phoenix data*.  * That in the spirit of this thread I'm 90% sure we'll have by then. James -------------------- |
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SFJCody Gut feeling... May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
john_s Too low according to my gut, which reports in at a... May 22 2008, 08:23 PM
SFJCody QUOTE (john_s @ May 22 2008, 09:23 PM) To... May 22 2008, 08:26 PM djellison I've been trying to figure this out for myself... May 22 2008, 08:54 PM ElkGroveDan I'll say 83% which is the ratio of successful ... May 22 2008, 09:03 PM centsworth_II QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 05:03 P... May 22 2008, 09:23 PM SFJCody QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 10:03 P... May 22 2008, 09:42 PM climber QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 11:03 P... May 23 2008, 04:04 AM dvandorn QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 04:03 P... May 23 2008, 04:41 AM climber QUOTE (dvandorn @ May 23 2008, 06:41 AM) ... May 23 2008, 04:53 AM kwan3217 Quotes removed. Better use the "add reply... May 23 2008, 06:28 AM tim53 QUOTE (kwan3217 @ May 22 2008, 10:28 PM) ... May 23 2008, 02:42 PM djellison QUOTE (tim53 @ May 23 2008, 03:42 PM) I j... May 23 2008, 03:22 PM tedstryk With all the MPL discussion and the fact that we h... May 22 2008, 09:04 PM mcaplinger QUOTE (tedstryk @ May 22 2008, 01:04 PM) ... May 22 2008, 09:43 PM ugordan My greatest paranoia, when it comes to Mars lander... May 22 2008, 09:08 PM ustrax My gut feeling...having into account the previous ... May 22 2008, 09:22 PM climber QUOTE (djellison @ May 22 2008, 10:54 PM)... May 24 2008, 12:51 PM nprev QUOTE (climber @ May 24 2008, 04:51 AM) B... May 24 2008, 12:59 PM climber QUOTE (nprev @ May 24 2008, 02:59 PM) Oka... May 24 2008, 02:31 PM kwan3217 Around 90%. I have seen many movies and animations... May 22 2008, 09:30 PM SpaceListener I have high trust about the Phoenix's EDL plan... May 22 2008, 10:53 PM nprev Gotta go with 90% or greater. They've learned ... May 23 2008, 02:20 AM centsworth_II QUOTE (nprev @ May 22 2008, 09:20 PM) Got... May 23 2008, 02:23 AM nprev Thanks for the nod, Climber, but it was actually C... May 23 2008, 04:35 AM mike I say the odds of a successful landing are 100%. May 23 2008, 04:45 AM Decepticon Nozomi: 10%
Beagle 2: 50%
MER A: 90%
MER B: 90%
Ma... May 23 2008, 07:31 AM akuo QUOTE (Decepticon @ May 23 2008, 08:31 AM... May 23 2008, 08:49 AM ugordan QUOTE (akuo @ May 23 2008, 10:49 AM) What... May 23 2008, 09:24 AM climber QUOTE (Decepticon @ May 23 2008, 09:31 AM... May 23 2008, 10:35 AM MahFL Frankly I am amazed ANY of them ever work, because... May 23 2008, 12:49 PM Zvezdichko With regards to your opinion, the powered descent ... May 23 2008, 07:38 AM Decepticon QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 23 2008, 03:38 AM... May 23 2008, 03:47 PM centsworth_II QUOTE (Decepticon @ May 23 2008, 11:47 AM... May 23 2008, 03:56 PM Tesheiner Well, after a very detailed and accurate analysis ... May 23 2008, 08:02 AM edstrick I'll go with a guess at something like 85%.
... May 23 2008, 08:10 AM edstrick Mars 6 (1973) used a similar system to Pathfinder ... May 23 2008, 09:34 AM djellison 5mph they keep saying - 2.5ish m/sec
2.5 m/sec to... May 23 2008, 01:26 PM Stu To be honest I can't even bring myself to thin... May 23 2008, 01:32 PM djellison I am genuinely beginning to get a physical reactio... May 23 2008, 02:11 PM nprev Be chilly, you guys, keep an even keel...really, i... May 23 2008, 02:23 PM Zvezdichko Same here. I woke up early with a stomach pain
... May 23 2008, 02:41 PM nprev What's weird is that I sweated blood before bo... May 23 2008, 02:56 PM tanjent This is what markets are good for. We can all exch... May 23 2008, 03:31 PM imipak QUOTE (tanjent @ May 23 2008, 04:31 PM) A... May 23 2008, 07:31 PM mcaplinger QUOTE (imipak @ May 23 2008, 11:31 AM) Th... May 23 2008, 08:36 PM Zvezdichko You are right, of course, but this technology hasn... May 23 2008, 03:59 PM centsworth_II QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 23 2008, 11:59 AM... May 23 2008, 04:03 PM ugordan QUOTE (centsworth_II @ May 23 2008, 06:03... May 23 2008, 04:19 PM nprev One thing to remember is that flight control algor... May 23 2008, 04:25 PM Zvezdichko QUOTE (nprev @ May 23 2008, 04:25 PM) The... May 23 2008, 05:44 PM climber This topic is definitely the "hotest" to... May 23 2008, 04:30 PM MahFL So if one of the legs hits a 0.5 meter high rock d... May 23 2008, 05:03 PM centsworth_II QUOTE (MahFL @ May 23 2008, 01:03 PM) So ... May 23 2008, 05:25 PM ustrax QUOTE (MahFL @ May 23 2008, 06:03 PM) So ... May 23 2008, 06:14 PM Alex Chapman My personal feeling is that the landing is going t... May 23 2008, 09:17 PM centsworth_II I love peanuts, I eat them every day. I'm eati... May 23 2008, 10:01 PM SFJCody QUOTE (centsworth_II @ May 23 2008, 11:01... May 23 2008, 10:18 PM climber Back to the original question, if one would try to... May 24 2008, 03:10 AM Nice Guy I worked on MPL, and MER (and Mars Observer as wel... May 24 2008, 05:12 AM centsworth_II QUOTE (Nice Guy @ May 24 2008, 01:12 AM) ... May 24 2008, 05:40 AM climber QUOTE (Nice Guy @ May 24 2008, 07:12 AM) ... May 24 2008, 12:58 PM climber Welcome to UMSF Nice Guy! You couldn't hav... May 24 2008, 05:25 AM edstrick The EDL landing simulation video is 1.) time compr... May 24 2008, 09:59 AM dmuller QUOTE (edstrick @ May 24 2008, 07:59 PM) ... May 24 2008, 10:46 AM ugordan QUOTE (dmuller @ May 24 2008, 12:46 PM) I... May 24 2008, 10:56 AM dmuller QUOTE (ugordan @ May 24 2008, 08:56 PM) I... May 24 2008, 11:09 AM Sunspot QUOTE (SFJCody @ May 22 2008, 09:15 PM) N... May 24 2008, 11:01 AM Zvezdichko Beagle 2 - I gave about 30%
MER A or MER B - 85%, ... May 24 2008, 11:06 AM Doc QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 24 2008, 02:06 PM... May 24 2008, 11:15 AM Zvezdichko QUOTE (Doc @ May 24 2008, 11:15 AM) This ... May 24 2008, 11:21 AM tedstryk QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 24 2008, 12:21 PM... May 24 2008, 01:07 PM dmuller QUOTE (Doc @ May 24 2008, 09:15 PM) This ... May 24 2008, 11:32 AM Doc QUOTE (dmuller @ May 24 2008, 02:32 PM) I... May 24 2008, 11:50 AM Alex Chapman QUOTE (Doc @ May 24 2008, 12:50 PM) From ... May 24 2008, 03:45 PM imipak QUOTE (Alex Chapman @ May 24 2008, 04:45 ... May 24 2008, 05:42 PM Doc A quote from the recent post on the Planetary Soci... May 24 2008, 11:06 AM Doc BTW-will the mission website provide realtime data... May 24 2008, 11:28 AM SFJCody Seems strange that powered descent + landing legs ... May 24 2008, 11:32 AM Zvezdichko I think it's because the powered descent hasn... May 24 2008, 11:47 AM PhilCo126 Well, it's not just EDL but EDFL ( Entry + Des... May 24 2008, 12:10 PM Juramike QUOTE (climber @ May 24 2008, 08:58 AM) W... May 24 2008, 04:32 PM Nice Guy I would like to point out that we try to learn fro... May 25 2008, 03:18 AM edstrick There is one point of concern regarding hearing th... May 25 2008, 10:45 AM Stu QUOTE (edstrick @ May 25 2008, 11:45 AM) ... May 25 2008, 10:48 AM Shaka I've got a gut feeling I ate too many peanuts.... May 25 2008, 06:59 PM marsbug I'm still on my first bag, good luck and godsp... May 25 2008, 07:28 PM ElkGroveDan Let's take it over to the EDL discussion
http... May 25 2008, 10:17 PM |
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