[X] My Assistant

[SFJCody]

Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be.
My guesses were:

Nozomi: 15%
Beagle 2: 20%
MER A: 60%
MER B: 60%
Mars Express: 85%

In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success

Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is:

55%


What do you think? Too low? Too high?

[nprev]

One thing to remember is that flight control algorithms and, of course, processing ability have come a LONG way since Viking...and even since MPL. The F-117, F-22 and for that matter the C-17 really have no inherent aerodynamic stability; without advanced motion sensors, processing and feedback (to say nothing of at least triple if not quadruple or even quintuple channel redundancy) none of those things would even get off the ground.

The EDL video may be causing a little angst because Phoenix looks so wobbly after releasing the chute. No worries; she'll be busily solving partial differential equations of motion for attitude control at breakneck speed and applying the corrections via the thruster pulses accordingly.