[X] My Assistant

[SFJCody]

Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be.
My guesses were:

Nozomi: 15%
Beagle 2: 20%
MER A: 60%
MER B: 60%
Mars Express: 85%

In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success

Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is:

55%


What do you think? Too low? Too high?

[edstrick]

The EDL landing simulation video is 1.) time compressed, and 2.) overly dramatic. The on-engine wobbles and damn-near cavorting of the simulated lander, particularly just before touchdown, remind me of a T-Rex's hystrionical overacting in your typical cheap Dinosaur Dramatization.

Granted, a T-Rex could do a little scenery chewing.... but.

[dmuller]

The EDL landing simulation video is 1.) time compressed, and 2.) overly dramatic. The on-engine wobbles and damn-near cavorting of the simulated lander, particularly just before touchdown, remind me of a T-Rex's hystrionical overacting in your typical cheap Dinosaur Dramatization.

Granted, a T-Rex could do a little scenery chewing.... but.

I agree ... be mindful of that EDL movie. It has lander separation at something like L - 25 secs, but according to the published nominal timeline, lander separation is at L - 45 secs or so, giving it twice as much time to stabilize and then topple over at the last instance anyway. The timeline shown is also shorter than the nominal timeline, but still within its +/-46 seconds of possible deviations.

Chance of success - well it's gonna be interesting. Given that so many things have to go right at the right time (cruise stage sep, attitude, parachute deploy, legs deploy, radar, lander sep, retro-rockets pulse firings, stabilization & attitude, retro-rockets cut-off, venting, solar panel deploy) ... well why shouldnt it work.

Daniel

[ugordan]

I agree ... be mindful of that EDL movie.

I think edstrick might have had this movie in mind, not the EDL HUD simulation. In the former movie, the lander drops from the backshell a long way down, then ignites the engines (which don't pulse, btw) and wobbles crazily right up until one second before landing. Unecessary Hollywood-like dramatization if you ask me.

[dmuller]

I think edstrick might have had this movie in mind, not the EDL HUD simulation.

Ah yes that one is hardcore Hollywood! Just watch the stars zip by in the cruise phase at Worp 5 I guess they gotta sell it to the masses ... most people probably dont get too hooked up on a 20 second lander separation discrepancy like us