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Gut feeling...
SFJCody
post May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
Post #1


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Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be.
My guesses were:

Nozomi: 15%
Beagle 2: 20%
MER A: 60%
MER B: 60%
Mars Express: 85%

In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success

Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is:

55%


What do you think? Too low? Too high?
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Posts in this topic
- SFJCody   Gut feeling...   May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
- - john_s   Too low according to my gut, which reports in at a...   May 22 2008, 08:23 PM
|- - SFJCody   QUOTE (john_s @ May 22 2008, 09:23 PM) To...   May 22 2008, 08:26 PM
- - djellison   I've been trying to figure this out for myself...   May 22 2008, 08:54 PM
|- - ElkGroveDan   I'll say 83% which is the ratio of successful ...   May 22 2008, 09:03 PM
||- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 05:03 P...   May 22 2008, 09:23 PM
||- - SFJCody   QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 10:03 P...   May 22 2008, 09:42 PM
||- - climber   QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 11:03 P...   May 23 2008, 04:04 AM
||- - dvandorn   QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 22 2008, 04:03 P...   May 23 2008, 04:41 AM
||- - climber   QUOTE (dvandorn @ May 23 2008, 06:41 AM) ...   May 23 2008, 04:53 AM
||- - kwan3217   Quotes removed. Better use the "add reply...   May 23 2008, 06:28 AM
||- - tim53   QUOTE (kwan3217 @ May 22 2008, 10:28 PM) ...   May 23 2008, 02:42 PM
||- - djellison   QUOTE (tim53 @ May 23 2008, 03:42 PM) I j...   May 23 2008, 03:22 PM
|- - tedstryk   With all the MPL discussion and the fact that we h...   May 22 2008, 09:04 PM
||- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (tedstryk @ May 22 2008, 01:04 PM) ...   May 22 2008, 09:43 PM
|- - ugordan   My greatest paranoia, when it comes to Mars lander...   May 22 2008, 09:08 PM
||- - ustrax   My gut feeling...having into account the previous ...   May 22 2008, 09:22 PM
|- - climber   QUOTE (djellison @ May 22 2008, 10:54 PM)...   May 24 2008, 12:51 PM
|- - nprev   QUOTE (climber @ May 24 2008, 04:51 AM) B...   May 24 2008, 12:59 PM
|- - climber   QUOTE (nprev @ May 24 2008, 02:59 PM) Oka...   May 24 2008, 02:31 PM
- - kwan3217   Around 90%. I have seen many movies and animations...   May 22 2008, 09:30 PM
- - SpaceListener   I have high trust about the Phoenix's EDL plan...   May 22 2008, 10:53 PM
- - nprev   Gotta go with 90% or greater. They've learned ...   May 23 2008, 02:20 AM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (nprev @ May 22 2008, 09:20 PM) Got...   May 23 2008, 02:23 AM
- - nprev   Thanks for the nod, Climber, but it was actually C...   May 23 2008, 04:35 AM
- - mike   I say the odds of a successful landing are 100%.   May 23 2008, 04:45 AM
- - Decepticon   Nozomi: 10% Beagle 2: 50% MER A: 90% MER B: 90% Ma...   May 23 2008, 07:31 AM
|- - akuo   QUOTE (Decepticon @ May 23 2008, 08:31 AM...   May 23 2008, 08:49 AM
||- - ugordan   QUOTE (akuo @ May 23 2008, 10:49 AM) What...   May 23 2008, 09:24 AM
|- - climber   QUOTE (Decepticon @ May 23 2008, 09:31 AM...   May 23 2008, 10:35 AM
|- - MahFL   Frankly I am amazed ANY of them ever work, because...   May 23 2008, 12:49 PM
- - Zvezdichko   With regards to your opinion, the powered descent ...   May 23 2008, 07:38 AM
|- - Decepticon   QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 23 2008, 03:38 AM...   May 23 2008, 03:47 PM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (Decepticon @ May 23 2008, 11:47 AM...   May 23 2008, 03:56 PM
- - Tesheiner   Well, after a very detailed and accurate analysis ...   May 23 2008, 08:02 AM
- - edstrick   I'll go with a guess at something like 85%. ...   May 23 2008, 08:10 AM
- - edstrick   Mars 6 (1973) used a similar system to Pathfinder ...   May 23 2008, 09:34 AM
- - djellison   5mph they keep saying - 2.5ish m/sec 2.5 m/sec to...   May 23 2008, 01:26 PM
- - Stu   To be honest I can't even bring myself to thin...   May 23 2008, 01:32 PM
- - djellison   I am genuinely beginning to get a physical reactio...   May 23 2008, 02:11 PM
- - nprev   Be chilly, you guys, keep an even keel...really, i...   May 23 2008, 02:23 PM
- - jamescanvin   Me too, I've already got that nervous-butterfl...   May 23 2008, 02:29 PM
- - Zvezdichko   Same here. I woke up early with a stomach pain ...   May 23 2008, 02:41 PM
- - nprev   What's weird is that I sweated blood before bo...   May 23 2008, 02:56 PM
- - tanjent   This is what markets are good for. We can all exch...   May 23 2008, 03:31 PM
|- - imipak   QUOTE (tanjent @ May 23 2008, 04:31 PM) A...   May 23 2008, 07:31 PM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (imipak @ May 23 2008, 11:31 AM) Th...   May 23 2008, 08:36 PM
- - Zvezdichko   You are right, of course, but this technology hasn...   May 23 2008, 03:59 PM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 23 2008, 11:59 AM...   May 23 2008, 04:03 PM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (centsworth_II @ May 23 2008, 06:03...   May 23 2008, 04:19 PM
- - nprev   One thing to remember is that flight control algor...   May 23 2008, 04:25 PM
|- - Zvezdichko   QUOTE (nprev @ May 23 2008, 04:25 PM) The...   May 23 2008, 05:44 PM
- - climber   This topic is definitely the "hotest" to...   May 23 2008, 04:30 PM
|- - MahFL   So if one of the legs hits a 0.5 meter high rock d...   May 23 2008, 05:03 PM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (MahFL @ May 23 2008, 01:03 PM) So ...   May 23 2008, 05:25 PM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (MahFL @ May 23 2008, 06:03 PM) So ...   May 23 2008, 06:14 PM
- - Alex Chapman   My personal feeling is that the landing is going t...   May 23 2008, 09:17 PM
- - centsworth_II   I love peanuts, I eat them every day. I'm eati...   May 23 2008, 10:01 PM
|- - SFJCody   QUOTE (centsworth_II @ May 23 2008, 11:01...   May 23 2008, 10:18 PM
- - climber   Back to the original question, if one would try to...   May 24 2008, 03:10 AM
- - Nice Guy   I worked on MPL, and MER (and Mars Observer as wel...   May 24 2008, 05:12 AM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (Nice Guy @ May 24 2008, 01:12 AM) ...   May 24 2008, 05:40 AM
|- - climber   QUOTE (Nice Guy @ May 24 2008, 07:12 AM) ...   May 24 2008, 12:58 PM
- - climber   Welcome to UMSF Nice Guy! You couldn't hav...   May 24 2008, 05:25 AM
- - edstrick   The EDL landing simulation video is 1.) time compr...   May 24 2008, 09:59 AM
|- - dmuller   QUOTE (edstrick @ May 24 2008, 07:59 PM) ...   May 24 2008, 10:46 AM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (dmuller @ May 24 2008, 12:46 PM) I...   May 24 2008, 10:56 AM
|- - dmuller   QUOTE (ugordan @ May 24 2008, 08:56 PM) I...   May 24 2008, 11:09 AM
- - Sunspot   QUOTE (SFJCody @ May 22 2008, 09:15 PM) N...   May 24 2008, 11:01 AM
- - Zvezdichko   Beagle 2 - I gave about 30% MER A or MER B - 85%, ...   May 24 2008, 11:06 AM
|- - Doc   QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 24 2008, 02:06 PM...   May 24 2008, 11:15 AM
|- - Zvezdichko   QUOTE (Doc @ May 24 2008, 11:15 AM) This ...   May 24 2008, 11:21 AM
||- - tedstryk   QUOTE (Zvezdichko @ May 24 2008, 12:21 PM...   May 24 2008, 01:07 PM
|- - dmuller   QUOTE (Doc @ May 24 2008, 09:15 PM) This ...   May 24 2008, 11:32 AM
|- - Doc   QUOTE (dmuller @ May 24 2008, 02:32 PM) I...   May 24 2008, 11:50 AM
|- - Alex Chapman   QUOTE (Doc @ May 24 2008, 12:50 PM) From ...   May 24 2008, 03:45 PM
|- - imipak   QUOTE (Alex Chapman @ May 24 2008, 04:45 ...   May 24 2008, 05:42 PM
- - Doc   A quote from the recent post on the Planetary Soci...   May 24 2008, 11:06 AM
- - Doc   BTW-will the mission website provide realtime data...   May 24 2008, 11:28 AM
|- - SFJCody   Seems strange that powered descent + landing legs ...   May 24 2008, 11:32 AM
- - Zvezdichko   I think it's because the powered descent hasn...   May 24 2008, 11:47 AM
- - PhilCo126   Well, it's not just EDL but EDFL ( Entry + Des...   May 24 2008, 12:10 PM
- - Juramike   QUOTE (climber @ May 24 2008, 08:58 AM) W...   May 24 2008, 04:32 PM
- - Nice Guy   I would like to point out that we try to learn fro...   May 25 2008, 03:18 AM
- - edstrick   There is one point of concern regarding hearing th...   May 25 2008, 10:45 AM
|- - Stu   QUOTE (edstrick @ May 25 2008, 11:45 AM) ...   May 25 2008, 10:48 AM
- - Shaka   I've got a gut feeling I ate too many peanuts....   May 25 2008, 06:59 PM
- - marsbug   I'm still on my first bag, good luck and godsp...   May 25 2008, 07:28 PM
- - ElkGroveDan   Let's take it over to the EDL discussion http...   May 25 2008, 10:17 PM

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