Prepare for UFO and fireball reports!
This will be an uncontrolled reentry, so could occur anywhere from 57 degrees N to 57 degrees South latitude.
Latest estimate is Sept 23 +/- 1 day
The risk assessment is interesting reading:http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf
Total dry mass at start 5668 kg
Number of potentially hazardous objects expected to survive: 26
Total mass of objects expected to survive: 532 kg
Estimated human casualty risk (updated to 2011): ~ 1 in 3200
No NASA or USG human casualty reentry risk limits existed when UARS
was designed, built, and launched.
NASA, the USG, and some foreign space agencies now seek to limit human
casualty risks from reentering space objects to less than 1 in 10,000.
UARS is a moderate-sized space object. Uncontrolled reentries of objects
more massive than UARS are not frequent, but neither are they unusual.
Combined Dragon mockup and Falcon 9 second stage reentry in June 2010 was more
Since the beginning of the space age, there has been no confirmed report
of an injury resulting from reentering space objects.
NASA, DoD, and the IADC will be monitoring the decay and reentry of UARS