Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: Entry Pool
Unmanned Spaceflight.com > Mars & Missions > MER > Opportunity
Pages: 1, 2, 3
Oren Iishi
I'm gonna throw my hat in the ring and say sol 1183. I read somewhere that the MER team wants to enter sooner rather than later.
MarsIsImportant
Well, it is very hard to say what the track of the rover will be while inside the crater. The track along the rim is fairly predictable.

I based my entry guess on several things. First, the MER team indicated that they were interested in features that were approximately 120 degrees from where Oppy reached Victoria. That indicates to me the cliffs on the North side and the dark streaks of soil above the crater's rim along the same stretch are priority. They are not going to go into the crater until those features are investigated. That tells me entry will be after Oppy passes over them. Second, the cliffs on the North side cannot easily be investigated from the rim like they already have for the ones near 'beacon'. They must go into the crater for these particular ones. Third, they cannot investigate the top of the North rim, if they go in near where Oppy currently is--Oppy might not be able to get out. Fourth, the MER team recently indicated that they were also interested in features near what we call "Soup Dragon", including some fault like structures. But, close inspection by Oppy for those seem to be secondary to the North cliff area. Fifth, the tilt for Oppy would be better for power reasons along the North East and East part of the crater. Sixth, the team wants to get into the crater ASAP--we don't know how long Oppy will last. Seventh, Oppy under current conditions would likely be able to get out of the crater along many bays of the Eastern edge of Victoria; yet, a wheel could go bad at anytime and Oppy could be disabled like Spirit currently is. Then, an egress out of the crater would become impossible. Eighth, if Oppy does get out of the Crater, then it can always reenter. A second entry would be best when considering investigation of the cliffs near 'beacon' from inside the crater. There is less risk at that point if Oppy gets disabled, since much of the mission to Victoria would already be complete. So a second entry for that area instead would have the greatest chance of the most complete mission success in investigating Victoria. It's likely that Oppy will die inside the crater near the Beacon cliffs for a number of reasons. But once the rest of the crater is toured, then the risk of reentry on the northwestern side and investigation of those cliffs would be VERY worth the effort. There is no guarantee that Oppy can make it back to Duck Bay from within the crater. The sand, dust, and tilt would be major obstacles. Movement along the rim will be less risky for the wheels. Once it gets back to Duck Bay, movement for Oppy will be less critical. So, the tilt problem won't be too restricting because Oppy will already be in an extended mission phase to Victoria. If it dies, then it dies. We will still have a lot of data for the entire crater.

By all means, the investigation of the Beacon cliffs are absolutely necessary. But, that is exactly what the MER team has already been doing from along the rim ever since it arrived at Victoria. Working within the crater along those particular cliffs would only be a significant bonus beyond the data that we already have, not critical.

I'm not part of the MER team, so they could easily view things differently. I'm just giving my 2 cents worth. I hope it makes some kind of sense.
kenny
Following the Portugese Historical Method of predicting Martian activity, I go for Sol 1314 - a great year for Scotland.

Scotland finally beats England...

Kenny
ustrax
QUOTE (kenny @ Mar 6 2007, 08:07 AM) *
I go for Sol 1314 - a great year for Scotland.


And for all discoverers... smile.gif
um3k
I'll claim my stake (or whatever) in sol 1280--a decent screen resolution. biggrin.gif
centsworth_II
My pick: 1299

I think they will go all the way to the potentially water-altered
fractures by Soup Dragon but take less time getting there than
the first half of the Duck Bay to Soup Dragon trip took. Then,
time for investigating the fractures and getting back to the
ingress point (wherever that is).

When they enter, I see the same situation as the approach to
Burns Cliff. Opportunity will slowly descend along the side of
a cape, investigating the layers and testing the footing along
the way. If the footing remains secure as the tip of the Cape
is reached, Opportunity may round it, but if the slope becomes
too steep or slippery, Opportunity will back out and reenter in
another bay. Or perhaps cross the bay it is in to the adjacent
Cape.

OK, all together now. "Well, duh!"
imipak
I'm still waiting for someone to point out either:

i. the rovers can navigate slopes greater than 18 degrees (I picked that figure up somewhere fairly authoritative I think - the JPL site?)

ii. that there's a slope on one of the bays of less than 18 degrees.

I know I must be wrong, because they're definitely planning to enter at some point... anyone feel up to administering the cluestick, and explaining which bit is wrong? OK, the images are foreshortened and distort the actual angle between the anulus and the chamfered ramp -- but surely those slopes are 30-35 degrees, at least, even at the shallowest point right at the rim.

(Whilst I'm at it -- I also don't think Oppy will be able to break out a bay and round a cape to the next one -- not only are the slopes too steep, the ground is deep, deep sand, a tar-pit for rovers if ever there was one. )
djellison
30 degrees is about the best they can manage, and I would think all the slopes on the SE quadrant of the crater are less than that - and indeed some of the bays we've already seen, Duck/Bottomless etc are there or there abouts.

Doug
tuvas
QUOTE (imipak @ Mar 7 2007, 12:46 PM) *
I know I must be wrong, because they're definitely planning to enter at some point... anyone feel up to administering the cluestick, and explaining which bit is wrong? OK, the images are foreshortened and distort the actual angle between the anulus and the chamfered ramp -- but surely those slopes are 30-35 degrees, at least, even at the shallowest point right at the rim.


I think the slopes at Duck Bay are about 20 degrees, or slightly less. There's another point on the far rim with a comparable slope. 30 degrees is managable to decend always, getting out however isn't always possible at that slope (It depends on the material beneath the rover, rocks would allow it to leave, sand wouldn't.)
centsworth_II
QUOTE (imipak @ Mar 7 2007, 02:46 PM) *
I'm still waiting for someone to point out ...

i. the rovers can navigate slopes greater than 18 degrees ...


Opportunity updates from July 1 and 7, 2004 discuss the rover's manuvers
on slopes greater that 25 degrees while desending into Endurance crater.
Other posts also discuss driving on slopes between 20 and 30 degrees.
dvandorn
Do we know what effect (if any) Oppy's broken steering actuator on that one front wheel has on her ability to drive up and down slopes?

-the other Doug
edstrick
My impression is that the angle of the front wheel should have pretty minimal effect on the slope climbing ability. If the wheel was canted 45 deg or more, then it would be significant to about as bad as the dead wheel on Spirit (for 60 to 90 deg)

I still don't like the "entry pool" phrase.. I keep getting this mental imagery of "GLUB! GLUB!"
imipak
Thanks everyone for clearing that one up! 30 degrees it is.
alan
Guesses so far in entry pool

1038 Floyd
1103 Ant103
1111 Nirgal
1111 atomoid
1122 climber
1139 ustrax
1140 tuvas
1143 imipak
1147 Bobby
1151 MahFL
1170 jamescanvin
1181 alan
1183 Oren Iishi
1192 Edward Schmitz
1200 Rakhir
1205 BrianL
1210 antioniseb
1219 MarsIsImportant
1224 Dfinrock
1234 PhilCo126
1235 dilo
1242 MizarKey
1244 bergadder
1255 Pavel
1270 AndyG
1280 um3k
1285 sattrackpro
1299 centsworth II
1305 pch
1313 Tesheiner
1314 kenny
1365 ToSeek
1395 micvoo
1425 Myran
1500 FIN Mars
1544 leustek
leustek
Would anyone mind if I picked a new entry pool date?

My earlier pick was when I was hoping beyond all hope that Duck Bay would be approached by way of the far side.

Unless someone objects, I'll change to sol 1266.

Instead of "GLUB! GLUB!" I imagine easing into a relaxing jacuzzi with a cool drink in hand cool.gif . Lets not focus on possible negative outcomes. There is nothing we can do about it anyway.
MarsIsImportant
I don't think changing the entry date guess is fair this late in the game, at least officially. It is especially unfair to those who picked very early and are near correct, including me. We now know exactly where Opportunity will ingress, and the rover is currently 'high tailing it' to that point of entry. In fact, I think the pool should be closed to official guesses. However, I have no problem with discussing changed opinions. Just keep in mind that your first guess should be the official one.
Edward Schmitz
Well, I don't know about anyone else, but I'm happy with my original guess!
MarsIsImportant
Yes Edward. If there are not very many delays, then you look to be in the 'cat bird seat'. Realistically, there appears to be somewhere between 8 and 12 people still well within the range of probability. And you so happen to be right in the middle. My guess is still within range too, but it is on the long side.
MarsIsImportant
Has it been determined what constitutes an actually ingress?

There is a big difference between a toe dip and an ingress. I think all six wheels down the slope should be considered an ingress. But what criteria determines the slope of the actual crater? These are questions that need to be answered soon.

Regardless, anybody that picked the toe dip 'Sol' should get an honorable mention.
MarsIsImportant
Maybe, the pool should be divided into two?

We could have the BKEP (before known entry point ) section and the AKEP (after known entry point) section. The BKEP is naturally far superior, but the AKEP would give those who 'missed the boat' another shot at a quality guess. Of course, the AKEP should be opened up to all those who made guesses in the BKEP too.
tuvas
QUOTE (MarsIsImportant @ May 4 2007, 03:10 PM) *
Has it been determined what constitutes an actually ingress?


As for me, I'd vote just leaving to when the press release states that it entered, I'm sure there will be some kind of a press release when it finally happens.
alan
I see where this is going. We will end up with a page full of posts splitting hairs over a definintion of entry to determine who wins a pool with no prize.

Being one of the moderators I'm doing what I should have done when I dug up this thread: Closing it. Since leustek's new guess is already posted and is 100 sols away I'll let it stand.

Doug, not being in the pool can define what is the the definition of entry.

Thread closed.

(I agree with this - these threads are silly anyway, and having people changing all their numbers because they get it 'wrong' is sillier still. - Doug )
climber
QUOTE (alan @ May 2 2007, 11:53 PM) *
Guesses so far in entry pool

1038 Floyd
1103 Ant103
1111 Nirgal
1111 atomoid
1122 climber
1139 ustrax
1140 tuvas
1143 imipak
1147 Bobby
1151 MahFL
1170 jamescanvin
1181 alan
1183 Oren Iishi
1192 Edward Schmitz
1200 Rakhir
1205 BrianL
1210 antioniseb
1219 MarsIsImportant
1224 Dfinrock
1234 PhilCo126
1235 dilo

1242 MizarKey
1244 bergadder
1255 Pavel
1270 AndyG
1280 um3k
1285 sattrackpro
1299 centsworth II
1305 pch
1313 Tesheiner
1314 kenny
1365 ToSeek
1395 micvoo
1425 Myran
1500 FIN Mars
1544 leustek

Here are the still possible winners.
I hope we'll stay in the 1200's !
kenny
It's now Sol 1264, so MizarKey, bergadder and Pavel bite the dust.... and AndyG is heading the same way.
AndyG
And I thought I was being improbably pessimistic, in order to convince the Norns to beat me. sad.gif

Andy
ToSeek
Heh, and I thought I was being incredibly pessimistic, but I've got the biggest "window of Opportunity" (pun intended) this side of Sol 1425.
edstrick
I keep wincing at the term Entry "POOL".... glub. Though that's ONE thing I don't expect Mars to toss at the rovers!
fredk
Unless, of course, it's a little pool of water clinging to the steep slopes of Endurance crater! laugh.gif wink.gif

I just can't help bringing that fiasco up any chance I get. It was just so ridiculous.
jamescanvin
Thanks for bringing that up again Fred, I missed it due to my travels, and somethings are not to be missed. How bizarre. blink.gif

James
kenny
It's now the morning of Sol 1290, so um3k is added to the List of the Lost. It's currently between sattrackpro (Sol 1285) and centsworth II (Sol 1299).
sattrackpro
Well, I'm out of it now... I got close - centsworth II now looks to be the closest guesser at this point... maybe. smile.gif
centsworth_II
Of course my guess was based on an entirely different set of assumptions than what actually occurred. mellow.gif
leustek
QUOTE (centsworth_II @ Sep 10 2007, 01:23 PM) *
Of course my guess was based on an entirely different set of assumptions than what actually occurred. mellow.gif


Life often takes peculiar turns doesn't it?
PDP8E
Is it too late?

SOL 1339

Cheers
alan
QUOTE (PDP8E @ Sep 10 2007, 04:42 PM) *
Is it too late?

SOL 1339

Cheers

Yes, it is too late, the pool was closed in May when Oppy started driving back to Duck Bay
jamescanvin
QUOTE (PDP8E @ Sep 10 2007, 10:42 PM) *
Is it too late?

SOL 1339

Cheers


Yes, it is too late, 1339 is way too late! rolleyes.gif (I hope...)
kenny
QUOTE (sattrackpro @ Sep 10 2007, 02:02 PM) *
Well, I'm out of it now... I got close - centsworth II now looks to be the closest guesser at this point... maybe. smile.gif


I don't think you're out of it, sattrackpro. If Oppy goes in tosol (1291) as is being predicted, then your sol 1285 bid (6 sols adrift) will be closer than centsworth II's Sol 1299 (8 sols adrift).

I'm assuming we're judging the closest guess to the actual entry sol, irrespective of whether that comes earlier or later.

Kenny
antoniseb
QUOTE (kenny @ Sep 11 2007, 05:51 AM) *
I'm assuming we're judging the closest guess to the actual entry sol, irrespective of whether that comes earlier or later.


I'd assumed we were using "The Price Is Right" system where the closest guess that is still over or equal to the actual entry date wins. Nothing was said about what happens if they roll the front wheels in and sit on the edge for three days. I guess the big prize would have to be split if that makes the winner ambiguous.

Concerning delays, are the MERs taking a few days off so that the DSN can pull images from Cassini, or is that a non-issue?
jamescanvin
QUOTE (antoniseb @ Sep 11 2007, 01:30 PM) *
Concerning delays, are the MERs taking a few days off so that the DSN can pull images from Cassini, or is that a non-issue?


Not an issue, particularly with Mars and Saturn not being close together (~90 degrees) on the sky at the moment.
sattrackpro
QUOTE (kenny @ Sep 11 2007, 04:51 AM) *
I don't think you're out of it, sattrackpro.
Kenny
Thanks, Kenny. If Oppy goes in today... I'll count myself extremely lucky smile.gif
DEChengst
WOOHOO!

http://nasa.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportu...ISP1212L0M1.JPG
kenny
So Sol 1291 was entry day, all 6 wheels inside Victoria.

JPL entry announcement

"Today, NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity entered Victoria Crater for the first time..... Opportunity drove far enough in -- about four meters (13 feet) -- to get all six wheels past the crater rim. Then it backed uphill for about three meters (10 feet). "

I will leave the final judgment of the winner to one of our adjudicators.

Kenny
djellison
1285 sattrackpro
1299 centsworth II

Entry 1291

Sattrackpro -6
Centsworth +8

STP wins - his is the closest estimate.

Doug
brellis
Good effort centsworth - missed it on the pro side! cool.gif
Tesheiner
I don't know if there will be additional prizes to the winner but this one is for sure.



Congrats Sattrackpro!

And I think centsworth II deserves another one too. smile.gif

sattrackpro
QUOTE (Tesheiner @ Sep 12 2007, 03:40 AM) *
I don't know if there will be additional prizes to the winner but this one is for sure.

Congrats Sattrackpro!
Thanks for the bar, Tesh - It's saved and soon framed! biggrin.gif

Thanks Doug... for the adjudication - and for all the fun this place provides for so many! smile.gif
climber
QUOTE (Tesheiner @ Sep 12 2007, 12:40 PM) *
I don't know if there will be additional prizes to the winner

You're the winner Eduardo !
Oppy entered Vicky (nearly) when SPIRIT was 1313 biggrin.gif


PS : Congratulations STKPRO smile.gif
SpaceListener
A new topic would be when the Opportunity would be getting out of Victory. Indeed, now it is long time to predict on two things: She will stay there forever or will leave out of the Victory. smile.gif
centsworth_II
QUOTE (Tesheiner @ Sep 12 2007, 06:40 AM) *
And I think centsworth II deserves another one too. smile.gif

Thanks, but I think Sattrackpro deserves the undisputed title.
(Ill take a snack size bar for second place.)
Click to view attachment
PhilCo126
Were these first 'steps' not conducted as an ingress test, after which they should try to get completely out again?
Otherwise Victoria crater could become Oppy's grave huh.gif
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2014 Invision Power Services, Inc.