This is a tough one, but I'm going to go with Tesheiner. A few reasons:
It's dropped significantly below the horizon on 2589 compared with 2588, which suggests it's closer rather than farther (once the 2589 pancams are down, we'll get a better sense of this).
The width agrees well with the width of Tesheiner's crater (about 1 degree on 2588), though a portion of Arvidson's candidate could appear similar width.
On 2588, it was about 31 degrees from this crater to the north:
Click to view attachmentThat agrees with the navcams if the northern crater is the light mark just below the centre horizon of
this frame.And the last reason: Arvidson's candidate looks very ancient and probably has very little relief, so I wouldn't expect to be able to see it from this far away. Tesheiner's has a raised rim which we could be seeing.
My main reason to doubt Tesheiner (apart from Arvidson being on the "inside", of course!) is that his crater was only 450 metres away on 2588. That puts the horizon very, very close. But if that were true, then we must be in a local low, and perhaps by the time we get to the crater we'll be out of the low and the view will open up again towards Endeavour...