Rest In Peace Uars |
Rest In Peace Uars |
Sep 22 2011, 08:45 PM
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#16
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 30 Joined: 5-September 07 From: High Bridge, New Jersey, USA Member No.: 3669 |
...from the site cited in the last post: Reentry Prediction: Predicted Reentry Time: 23 SEP 2011 @ 22:07 UTC ± 9 hours ± 9 hours means 6 orbits where are the perigee points? They are the most likely places where UARS starts to sink into the atmosphere I would assume (and it's just an assumption) that it's at the the point of most likely reentry as shown on the map. |
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Sep 22 2011, 09:25 PM
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#17
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Member Group: Members Posts: 541 Joined: 17-November 05 From: Oklahoma Member No.: 557 |
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Sep 22 2011, 09:56 PM
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#18
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 30 Joined: 5-September 07 From: High Bridge, New Jersey, USA Member No.: 3669 |
Well that's certainly far different than the map that I posted... We shall see. |
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Sep 22 2011, 10:00 PM
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#19
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 30 Joined: 5-September 07 From: High Bridge, New Jersey, USA Member No.: 3669 |
BTW, the map has been updated with the latest orbital elements. It is now sept 24, on an orbit that crosses the US 20 minutes later.
Sept 24 0058 UTC +/- 7 hours (5 orbits). That's about 9PM EDT http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html |
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Sep 22 2011, 10:47 PM
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#20
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Member Group: Members Posts: 913 Joined: 4-September 06 From: Boston Member No.: 1102 |
That is 9pm EDT on the 23rd (in US and Pacific target) 1 am 24th in UK. Time zones
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Sep 22 2011, 11:42 PM
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#21
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 30 Joined: 5-September 07 From: High Bridge, New Jersey, USA Member No.: 3669 |
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Sep 23 2011, 03:38 AM
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#22
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
Last info I read said it would NOT be over the USA......
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Sep 23 2011, 04:11 AM
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#23
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
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Sep 23 2011, 07:22 AM
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#24
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 30 Joined: 5-September 07 From: High Bridge, New Jersey, USA Member No.: 3669 |
That's the same map I posted 6 hours earlier, it hasn't ben updated since. Besides the time is +/- 7 hours, so I wouldn't focus of any particular orbit yet.
BTW, I see a NOTAM has been issued... |
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Sep 23 2011, 04:54 PM
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#25
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
Over the Sahara now. Still mostly empty areas.
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Sep 23 2011, 08:45 PM
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#26
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Member Group: Members Posts: 808 Joined: 10-October 06 From: Maynard Mass USA Member No.: 1241 |
-------------------- CLA CLL
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Sep 23 2011, 08:53 PM
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#27
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Member Group: Members Posts: 913 Joined: 4-September 06 From: Boston Member No.: 1102 |
I don't know if aero.org does any independent analysis or just works off of http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html. Unfortunately they have not updated from report #10 at 10:45 am EDT this morning. Maybe they are waiting until one orbit left to post...
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Sep 24 2011, 01:10 AM
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#28
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Newbie Group: Members Posts: 3 Joined: 24-August 11 Member No.: 6136 |
First post !
The latest info - 145 x 150 km, 56.9° (Epoch Sep 23) Reentry expected in the next 2-4 hours! |
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Sep 24 2011, 02:43 AM
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#29
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 30 Joined: 5-September 07 From: High Bridge, New Jersey, USA Member No.: 3669 |
Just some more details...
Latest update as of 2215 UTC, demise is ~ 7 hours away (3 hours now), and the US is finally off the table. Orbit at that time (about 4 hours ago) was 145 x 150 km (90 x 93 mi). Down 17 and 20 km in the preceeding 12 hours. Estimated crash time is 0510 UTC Sept 24 +/- 2 hours, over the very south Pacific west of Australia, although the earlier and later orbits include Canada, Africa and Australia of the landmasses. MW |
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Sep 24 2011, 04:45 AM
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#30
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Senior Member Group: Admin Posts: 4763 Joined: 15-March 05 From: Glendale, AZ Member No.: 197 |
It should be down by now, or very soon.
QUOTE UARS Updates Update #12 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 07:50:07 PM PDT As of 10:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 85 miles by 90 miles (135 km by 140 km). Re-entry is expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3:45 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote. -------------------- If Occam had heard my theory, things would be very different now.
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