When Will Oppy Be Free Options

[alan]

Place your bets. When will Oppy be free of this dune. Pick the sol when all of the wheels are out of the trench and on top of the soil.
I'll start by picking sol 490

[CosmicRocker]

OK, here are the plots, if anyone is interested.



The upper graph shows meters attempted versus centimeters advanced, for sols 464-469...the only sols I have individual data for. In the lower graph I have added a point that is the sum of all the previous points, and also a point gleaned from the recent space.com article (which apparently was privy to information from sols later than 469.) They reported a total of 48 meters of attempted driving and 27 centimeters of progress.

What I find most interesting is the fact that a linear best fit equation based on sols 464-469, constrained to pass through the plot's origin, also passes very close to the space.com point, which contains information about an additional 26 meters of attmpted driving.

Apparently the going has not been getting any better for our dear Opportunity, which is quite contrary to what I was expecting to see.

[chokai]

Apparently the going has not been getting any better for our dear Opportunity, which is quite contrary to what I was expecting to see. 

It's kinda stating the obvious here but I think getting back on TOP of the sand is going to be a pretty big problem for Opportunity, rather than actually getting out of the dune itself. I have wondered a lot over the last couple of days if they will simply "trench" rather than climbing out. My experience from driving cars on Long Beach in washington state is that sometimes once you have sunk in you'll stay sunk in, even if you can move, until you have some type of major texture change in the sand, such as going from dry to wet. And unlike us here on earth they don't have the luxury of finding some logs or boards and throwing them under the wheels to provide traction and lower the ground pressure until they do get up on top.

[sapodilla]

It's kinda stating the obvious here but I think getting back on TOP of the sand is going to be a pretty big problem for Opportunity, rather than actually getting out of the dune itself.  I have wondered a lot over the last couple of days if they will simply "trench" rather than climbing out.    My experience from driving cars on Long Beach in washington state is that sometimes once you have sunk in you'll stay sunk in, even if you can move, until you have some type of major texture change in the sand, such as going from dry to wet.  And unlike us here on earth they don't have the luxury of finding some logs or boards and throwing them under the wheels to provide traction and lower the ground pressure until they do get up on top.

How deep is the soil between the dunes? 5cm? - 10cm? - 15cm?. I think if it`s only about 5 - 10cm Opportunity can turn on the bottom and then drive between the dunes till it get to a safer ground and back on top of the soil. Between dunes - the blue "road" left of Opportunity in this picture: Blue road

[RNeuhaus]

It's kinda stating the obvious here but I think getting back on TOP of the sand is going to be a pretty big problem for Opportunity, rather than actually getting out of the dune itself.  I have wondered a lot over the last couple of days if they will simply "trench" rather than climbing out.    My experience from driving cars on Long Beach in washington state is that sometimes once you have sunk in you'll stay sunk in, even if you can move, until you have some type of major texture change in the sand, such as going from dry to wet.  And unlike us here on earth they don't have the luxury of finding some logs or boards and throwing them under the wheels to provide traction and lower the ground pressure until they do get up on top.

How deep is the soil between the dunes? 5cm? - 10cm? - 15cm?. I think if it`s only about 5 - 10cm Opportunity can turn on the bottom and then drive between the dunes till it get to a safer ground and back on top of the soil. Between dunes - the blue "road" left of Opportunity in this picture: Blue road

Maybe Opportunity will find some ice under the floor after trying to rotate the wheels. It is possible to get out of sand only under exceptional conditions without any help. The bigest help is to drive toward to the negative slope. Sometimes, after sinking some cms, it will find a harder texture on the bottom, perhaps, it would be wetter (some humidity??? under the floor?) that would help Opps to get better grip to advance. This is true when I drive a mud floor, the wheels sinks until reach a firmer soil (stones) and it helps to advance.

Hope the Opportunity will be free by the sol 491 as I put my bet.

Rodolfo

[sapodilla]

I guess that Oppy need to back about 6 meters to get free. 6cm a Sol x 100 Sols = Sol 580

I think they (MER team) should stop playing with 5 - 10cm a Sol. They should roll the wheels 100 - 200 meters a Sol which is 50cm - 1 meter (0,5%) in reality, then Oppy should get free in 5 - 10 Sols.