When Will Oppy Be Free Options

[mike]

I was wondering the same thing.. but that dune in front of Oppy (behind?) looks pretty simple.

Uh, so did the dune behind (in front of?) Oppy a few sols ago.

I'll vote for "soon" on her freedom...

--Bill

I'm not sure they could see the dune in which Opportunity is currently stuck when they started the drive. I wager $1 billion that Opportunity would have to try very hard to get stuck in the dune behind (in front of?) it.

And today Opportunity escapes its sandy trap! Enjoy.

[ddeerrff]

As a lurker, I have to jump in here and pick Sol 472.

[brianc]

Ref : JPL e-mail addresses for passing on congrats, mars bars etc

All seem to be of the format forename.surname@jpl.nasa.gov

e.g in the unlikely event Michael Jackson worked there it would be michael.jackson@jpl.nasa.gov

I guess MJ wouldn't have an trouble 'backing out' of difficult situations, perhaps thy ought to hire him

[djellison]

I'll try attaching a golden trowel as an email attachment, but I have a feeling it'll get stuck in my wireless ADSL router.

Doug

[Guest_Myran_*]

Alan said: sols taken 470, 474,475,476,477, 479,480, 482,483, 485,486, 490,491 chmee asked for 477 I bumped him to 478 since 477 was taken
so Myran how about 481?

Thanx for correcting me alan, I take 481, else it would have been only ½ a mars bar!

Joined up on this for a bit of lighharted fun, but to show my optimism andhope we might get a bit more on this Mars buggy that already have surpassed most peoples expectations in any way. Yes also mine, remember when Spirit sat in Gusev disabled only able to say 'beep' at the start of that mission? We've come a long way since!

[Bubbinski]

I'll take Sol 484 then.

[EckJerome]

Okay, Oppy, today's my sol....come out for a stroll!

[Guest_Myran_*]

From AP: Engineers have managed to move Opportunity about a foot since then, and said it would take at least another week to free it.

Lets see Sol 474 + 7 days = 481!

[OWW]

from http://space.com/missionlaunches/050524_rovers_update.html

Opportunity has also made progress, though not altogether scientific, at its Meridiani Planum. The rover is slowly but surely inching its way out of a deep sand dune, though mission managers don’t expect to free the robot for another few weeks.

and

At the current rate, it may be two more weeks before Opportunity once again reaches safe ground, Erickson added.

So let's see... 474 + 14 = 488. Looks like Alan's first estimate in this thread was pretty accurate.

[CosmicRocker]

Yep. The progress has been remarkably linear, so far. I wasn't expecting that, and wonder if I get a second guess.

I have been plotting the progress that has been published by JPL and others so far, and the ratio of advancement to attempted distance driven has been pretty much constant.

I was hoping to post the data and some graphs, but other things prevented me from doing that tonight. The progress has been very linear, and the best ratio I have managed to derive is around 0.0056-0.0058. If someone wants to estimate the distance needed to set us free, the equation should be something like Y=0.0057X.

It is encouraging that the ratio has at least held constant.

[CosmicRocker]

OK, here are the plots, if anyone is interested.



The upper graph shows meters attempted versus centimeters advanced, for sols 464-469...the only sols I have individual data for. In the lower graph I have added a point that is the sum of all the previous points, and also a point gleaned from the recent space.com article (which apparently was privy to information from sols later than 469.) They reported a total of 48 meters of attempted driving and 27 centimeters of progress.

What I find most interesting is the fact that a linear best fit equation based on sols 464-469, constrained to pass through the plot's origin, also passes very close to the space.com point, which contains information about an additional 26 meters of attmpted driving.

Apparently the going has not been getting any better for our dear Opportunity, which is quite contrary to what I was expecting to see.

[chokai]

Apparently the going has not been getting any better for our dear Opportunity, which is quite contrary to what I was expecting to see. 

It's kinda stating the obvious here but I think getting back on TOP of the sand is going to be a pretty big problem for Opportunity, rather than actually getting out of the dune itself. I have wondered a lot over the last couple of days if they will simply "trench" rather than climbing out. My experience from driving cars on Long Beach in washington state is that sometimes once you have sunk in you'll stay sunk in, even if you can move, until you have some type of major texture change in the sand, such as going from dry to wet. And unlike us here on earth they don't have the luxury of finding some logs or boards and throwing them under the wheels to provide traction and lower the ground pressure until they do get up on top.

[sapodilla]

It's kinda stating the obvious here but I think getting back on TOP of the sand is going to be a pretty big problem for Opportunity, rather than actually getting out of the dune itself.  I have wondered a lot over the last couple of days if they will simply "trench" rather than climbing out.    My experience from driving cars on Long Beach in washington state is that sometimes once you have sunk in you'll stay sunk in, even if you can move, until you have some type of major texture change in the sand, such as going from dry to wet.  And unlike us here on earth they don't have the luxury of finding some logs or boards and throwing them under the wheels to provide traction and lower the ground pressure until they do get up on top.

How deep is the soil between the dunes? 5cm? - 10cm? - 15cm?. I think if it`s only about 5 - 10cm Opportunity can turn on the bottom and then drive between the dunes till it get to a safer ground and back on top of the soil. Between dunes - the blue "road" left of Opportunity in this picture: Blue road

[RNeuhaus]

It's kinda stating the obvious here but I think getting back on TOP of the sand is going to be a pretty big problem for Opportunity, rather than actually getting out of the dune itself.  I have wondered a lot over the last couple of days if they will simply "trench" rather than climbing out.    My experience from driving cars on Long Beach in washington state is that sometimes once you have sunk in you'll stay sunk in, even if you can move, until you have some type of major texture change in the sand, such as going from dry to wet.  And unlike us here on earth they don't have the luxury of finding some logs or boards and throwing them under the wheels to provide traction and lower the ground pressure until they do get up on top.

How deep is the soil between the dunes? 5cm? - 10cm? - 15cm?. I think if it`s only about 5 - 10cm Opportunity can turn on the bottom and then drive between the dunes till it get to a safer ground and back on top of the soil. Between dunes - the blue "road" left of Opportunity in this picture: Blue road

Maybe Opportunity will find some ice under the floor after trying to rotate the wheels. It is possible to get out of sand only under exceptional conditions without any help. The bigest help is to drive toward to the negative slope. Sometimes, after sinking some cms, it will find a harder texture on the bottom, perhaps, it would be wetter (some humidity??? under the floor?) that would help Opps to get better grip to advance. This is true when I drive a mud floor, the wheels sinks until reach a firmer soil (stones) and it helps to advance.

Hope the Opportunity will be free by the sol 491 as I put my bet.

Rodolfo

[sapodilla]

I guess that Oppy need to back about 6 meters to get free. 6cm a Sol x 100 Sols = Sol 580

I think they (MER team) should stop playing with 5 - 10cm a Sol. They should roll the wheels 100 - 200 meters a Sol which is 50cm - 1 meter (0,5%) in reality, then Oppy should get free in 5 - 10 Sols.